Study finds the validity of computer models for predicting climate change

A recent study published by scientist Zeke Hausfather in the journal Geophysical Research Letters studied the accuracy of several computer models used to predict the climate change. The study found high levels of accuracy in these computer models with an average skill score of 69%. The ‘skill score’ was used to determine the success of these computer simulation programs in predicting the temperature change. Of the 17 models studies (from 1970 to 2007), 10 were found to have predicted the temperature very accurately. One of the earliest model even recorded a skill score of 91%. According to the study, the success of the models was mainly due to two correct assumptions:

  • The atmosphere’s physics and its responses to the GHG/ Greenhouse Gases.
  • Amount of GHG added to the atmosphere.

The study is significant in disproving the climate change deniers. The study found that, if some of the models were wrong, it was only in overestimating the volume of GHGs in the atmosphere, thus leading to a slight overestimation of temperatures.

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