World Bank: India’s GDP Forecast- Update

For the fiscal year 2022-23, India’s GDP forecast has been slashed by the World Bank from 8.7 percent to 8 percent. The reason given for the change in forecast is due to rising inflation and worsening global supply caused due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Overview:

  • South Asia’s growth outlook, excluding Afghanistan has also been slashed to 6.6 percent.
  • According to the World Bank, India’s household consumption will be constrained due to the labour market’s incomplete recovery from inflationary and COVID-19-related pressures.
  • High food and oil prices due to the war in Ukraine will also have a negative impact on the real incomes of the people.

Asian Development Bank Outlook 2022

The Asian Development Bank Outlook 2022 had earlier said that India will be maintaining its position as the fastest-growing major economy. The nation in 2022-23 will have a growth rate of 7.5 percent on the basis of strong investment prospects. In January to December 2022, the growth prospect of China has been stated to be 5 percent.

India’s Growth in 2023-24 according to the ADB

In the next fiscal of 2023-24, India’s growth will be accelerating further to 8 percent while in 2023 China will be witnessing a decline in growth to 4.8 percent.

World Bank’s forecast for other regions

Pakistan

Pakistan’s growth forecast for the current year which will be ending in June has been raised from 3.4 percent to 4.3 percent. Next year’s growth outlook has been kept unchanged at 4 percent.

Maldives

The growth forecast of Maldives for this year has been slashed from 11 percent to 7.6 percent.

Sri Lanka

The growth forecast for Sri Lanka has been raised from 2.1 percent to 2.4 percent but has also issued a warning for the crisis-hit country that the outlook was uncertain due to fiscal imbalances.

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