Pacific Typhoon Threatens Indian Monsoon

Pacific typhoons and warming in the equatorial Pacific are linked with changes in the Indian southwest monsoon through shifts in atmospheric circulation, rainfall distribution, and cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal and the North Indian Ocean. In August 2026, Super Typhoon Dolphin was tracked in the Pacific Ocean near Japan, while forecasters monitored its indirect effect on monsoon rainfall over India.

Pacific Typhoons and Monsoon Interaction

Typhoons in the western Pacific can influence the Indian monsoon by altering the monsoon trough, suppressing Bay of Bengal systems, and changing moisture transport over the Indian subcontinent. In July 2026, a strong weather system over the western Pacific was associated with a weak phase of the southwest monsoon and subdued rainfall over central, western, and peninsular India.

El Niño and Indian Rainfall

El Niño is the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. A developing El Niño in 2026 was linked with the delayed onset of the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala on 4 June 2026, three days after the normal date, and the India Meteorological Department projected rainfall at 90% of the long-period average.

Cyclone Activity in the Indo-Pacific Region

The Northwest Pacific, South China Sea, and North Indian Ocean form part of the broader tropical cyclone belt of the Indo-Pacific region. The 2026 typhoon season was forecast to have elevated risk of intense and long-lived typhoons, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy estimated at about 1.4 times the 1991–2020 normal.

Important Facts for Exams

• El Niño refers to abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is one phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.
• La Niña is the cooler phase of ENSO and is often associated with stronger monsoon conditions over parts of India.
• The India Meteorological Department uses the term long-period average for rainfall comparison across monsoon seasons.
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, is a metric used to measure the total energy of tropical cyclones during a season.

North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season

The North Indian Ocean cyclone season includes cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The 2025 North Indian Ocean cyclone season was recorded as the costliest and deadliest since 2008, with severe cyclonic storms such as Senyar and Ditwah causing flooding and fatalities in the region.