India’s GDP Forecasts by Fitch Ratings

In it’s Global Economic Outlook report, Fitch Ratings has cut India’s economic growth forecast for the next financial year 2019-20 starting from April 1 to 6.8 per cent from its previous estimate of 7 per cent, on the account of weaker than expected momentum in the economy.

GDP Forecasts

  • Even though Fitch Ratings has reduced the GDP forecasts for India, it sees Indian GDP growth to hold up reasonably well, at 6.8 per cent, followed by 7.1 per cent in 2021-22.
  • India’s GDP growth for the financial year 2019-20 was reduced to 7.2 per cent from 7.8 per cent earlier in December 2018.
  • Further, the growth forecasts for 2020-21 and 2021-22 was reduced to 7 per cent from 7.3 per cent and 7.1 per cent from 7.3 per cent, respectively.

Fitch Ratings observes that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a more dovish monetary policy stance and cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage at its February 2019 and it expects another 25 bps cut in 2019, amid protracted below-target inflation and easier global monetary conditions than previously envisaged.
Fitch notes that benign oil price outlook and expectations of accelerating food prices in the coming months should support rural households’ income and consumption.


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