India to lead global oil demand growth till 2035: IEA

India is emerging as the world’s main engine of energy demand growth, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) projecting rapid expansion in oil, gas, coal and clean power use through 2035. Rising incomes, fast urbanisation and a shift towards modern energy services are transforming the country’s role in global energy markets.

India as epicentre of global oil demand

The IEA’s Global/World Energy Outlook 2025 identifies India as the largest driver of global oil demand growth to 2035. Oil use is projected to rise from about 5.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to around 8 million barrels per day by 2035. Higher car ownership, aviation growth, increased plastics and chemical production, and wider LPG use for cooking are the main contributors. Nearly half of the additional global oil demand over this period is expected to come from India alone.

Rising import dependence and refining expansion

Despite efforts to lift domestic production, India’s oil import dependence is likely to deepen, climbing from roughly 87 per cent in 2024 to about 92 per cent by 2035. At the same time, refining capacity is set to grow from around 6 million barrels per day in 2024 to about 7.5 million barrels per day by 2035. This will consolidate India’s position as a major exporter of transport fuels and a key “swing supplier” in global markets.

Gas, coal and the scale of energy demand

Natural gas demand is projected to almost double to about 140 billion cubic metres by 2035, driven by city-gas networks and industry. LNG imports are expected to rise sharply to around 50 billion cubic metres. Coal demand will increase moderately, supported by mining expansion and projects such as the upgrade of the Gevra mine, helping meet industrial and power needs while limiting import growth.

Exam Oriented Facts

• India’s oil demand is projected to rise to about 8 mbpd by 2035.
• Oil import dependence is expected to reach roughly 92 per cent by 2035.
• Refining capacity is forecast to expand to about 7.5 mbpd by 2035.
• India’s energy demand is set to grow by over 15 exajoules by 2035.

Clean energy surge and long-term transition

India has already achieved 50 per cent non-fossil power capacity ahead of its 2030 target, supported by strong solar and wind investment. Non-fossil sources are expected to account for about 70 per cent of installed capacity by 2035, with renewables providing almost all new power additions. Carbon emissions are projected to peak around 2040, while the net-zero 2070 pledge, expanding nuclear capacity, rising ethanol blending, growth in battery storage and transmission upgrades together aim to balance continued fossil-fuel use with a steady shift towards a lower-carbon energy system.