Why the India–UAE Defence Talks Matter Amid a Fracturing Gulf Order

A brief, nearly two-hour visit to New Delhi by UAE President and Abu Dhabi ruler Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan — marked by a single meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi — has produced outcomes with implications far beyond the headline economic announcements. While the focus was on trade, energy and investment, the most consequential signal was political-strategic: the intention to negotiate an India–UAE “Strategic Defence Partnership”, a first for New Delhi with any Gulf country.

What was announced during MbZ’s Delhi visit?

India and the UAE reaffirmed the depth of their economic partnership. The two sides committed to doubling bilateral trade to $200 billion, announced a $3 billion LNG agreement, and confirmed fresh UAE investments, particularly in Gujarat. These build on a rapidly expanding relationship: the UAE is India’s third-largest trading partner, second-largest export destination, seventh-largest foreign investor, and the first country to sign a bilateral trade agreement with India in 2022.

Yet the standout announcement was strategic rather than commercial — a proposed framework for a defence partnership, with details to be negotiated. Though still undefined, the very idea marks a shift in India’s engagement with West Asia, traditionally cautious and calibrated.

Why a defence partnership — and why now?

The timing of MbZ’s sudden visit has drawn attention. It comes amid rising instability across West Asia and growing fractures within the Gulf itself. Once close partners, the UAE and the Saudi Arabia have seen relations sour. Their rivalry has played out over Yemen, influence in Sudan, and broader leadership of the Arab world.

The lack of communication between MbZ and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now widely described as a new Gulf “cold war”. In this context, Abu Dhabi’s outreach to India appears part of a broader effort to diversify strategic partnerships beyond traditional regional alignments.

A region entering a new phase of instability

The defence talks also unfold against a volatile regional backdrop. Iran is witnessing sustained protests and internal unrest, while the U.S. has issued repeated warnings of possible intervention. The Gaza ceasefire remains fragile, and U.S. President Donald Trump has floated the idea of a “Board of Peace” for the region — an initiative viewed with scepticism by many regional actors.

Further complicating matters was Israel’s bombing in Qatar in September 2025, after which Saudi Arabia reportedly rushed to negotiate a “mutual defence pact” with Pakistan, with discussions said to include Türkiye. These overlapping and sometimes competing security arrangements suggest a region moving toward sharper bloc politics.

Is India being drawn into Gulf security rivalries?

Some analysts see the India–UAE defence talks as potentially counterbalancing other emerging alignments in the region. This interpretation has prompted concern about whether New Delhi could be pulled into West Asian security dynamics that do not directly serve its interests.

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri sought to allay such fears, emphasising that the proposed agreement is not about India’s participation in “hypothetical future scenarios” in the region. Even so, defence cooperation — by its nature — signals a higher level of political trust and expectation, and will be closely watched by other Gulf capitals.

India’s broader stakes in the Gulf region

India’s caution is rooted in hard realities. Nearly 10 million Indians live and work across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, making regional stability a core domestic concern. The GCC is also a critical energy source, especially as U.S. and EU sanctions have constrained India’s access to other suppliers.

At the same time, India’s ambitious connectivity projects depend on a delicate regional balance. Routes through Iran’s Chabahar port, the International North South Transport Corridor, and the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor all require cooperation among rival regional players. Escalating tensions threaten to derail these initiatives.

Why New Delhi has little room for strategic missteps

With overlapping rivalries — UAE–Saudi tensions, Iran–U.S. hostility, Israel–Gaza instability, and new defence pacts involving Pakistan — West Asia is entering a more fragmented and unpredictable phase. For India, deepening ties with the UAE brings clear economic and strategic benefits, but it also raises the risk of misperception among other partners.

The challenge for New Delhi will be to expand strategic cooperation without being seen as choosing sides. As the Gulf order shifts and security equations harden, India’s long-standing approach — engagement with all, alignment with none — will be tested more sharply than ever.