When Climate Cooperation Fractures: Why a U.S. Withdrawal Hits India’s Weather Forecasts and Food Security

Global warming does not wait for politics. Heatwaves, cyclones, erratic monsoons and floods move faster than election cycles and budget seasons. They also ignore borders. On January 7–8, 2026, Washington sent a stark signal by initiating withdrawal from key climate institutions and finance mechanisms. The legal process may take time, but the operational risk is immediate. Climate cooperation is being treated as optional — even as climate impacts become non-negotiable.

What changed in Washington — and why it matters

On January 7, the White House issued a memorandum directing U.S. agencies to withdraw from 66 international organisations and agreements, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The following day, the U.S. Treasury notified its withdrawal from the Green Climate Fund.

These moves do not merely affect diplomacy. They sit atop the global climate services chain — the system that turns raw observations into forecasts and warnings. Satellites, ships, buoys and weather stations feed data into global models; supercomputers assimilate it; national agencies translate it into action. Break any link, and uncertainty rises downstream. You don’t notice the missing bolt until the bridge starts to shake.

The hidden infrastructure behind every forecast

Climate institutions are not talk shops; they are plumbing. The World Meteorological Organization coordinates global observations and standards. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration runs satellites, ships and laboratories that underpin ocean and atmospheric science. Research centres refine models year after year so forecasts remain reliable as extremes intensify.

Budget proposals targeting NOAA’s research arms — including the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, a pioneer of coupled ocean–atmosphere models — would slow those upgrades. The first casualty would not be an international meeting; it would be forecast skill, disaster preparedness and economic stability — in the U.S. and beyond.

Why India feels the shock first

Weather and climate are a single connected system. You cannot run a credible monsoon forecast with blind spots over the Pacific or the poles. Consider the TAO/TRITON buoy network across the equatorial Pacific, designed to track El Niño–La Niña. El Niño is the “master switch” for the Indian monsoon. Lose early detection because funding dries up, and the India Meteorological Department loses lead time on drought risk. A budget cut in Washington can translate into a failed harvest in Vidarbha.

India has strong domestic capabilities — including satellites from Indian Space Research Organisation and dense land observations — but we still depend on the global data pool, especially over data-sparse oceans. If a major partner retreats, India faces a single-point failure risk.

Climate finance cuts and the adaptation gap

Withdrawals from climate finance create a similar butterfly effect. When contributions falter, projects that harden coastlines, upgrade early-warning systems and protect vulnerable communities are delayed or downsized. The WMO has already been forced to review priorities amid funding stress — even as the need for early warnings grows. For the Global South, continuity is the priority. Adaptation cannot be hostage to geopolitical mood swings.

The privatisation trap: when forecasts become a commodity

A second risk is forming. If public climate data becomes less reliable or accessible, private actors will fill the gap. AI-driven tools like GraphCast and platforms such as NVIDIA’s Earth-2 show promise. But privatisation changes incentives. Public agencies warn everyone; private firms serve paying customers. If essential climate services become a commodity, richer actors buy safety first and poorer communities inherit the risk. Climate data becomes a market advantage rather than a public shield.

What a resilient alternative looks like

The answer is not nostalgia for a single hegemon, but insulation from geopolitics. Europe offers a model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — a convention-based institution supported by 30+ nations that pools computing and delivers world-class forecasts.

Asia needs a comparable architecture for the Indo-Pacific. India should anchor a regional climate services consortium with Japan, South Korea and Singapore, with structured participation from South Asian neighbours. China should be engaged for scientific data exchange under global norms, while building redundancy so continuity never depends on any single partner. Relying on a strategic rival for essential climate data is a national-security non-starter; redundancy is the safeguard.

Building a public, sovereign climate shield

A credible regional system would commit members to a shared pool of essential observations, mirrored data centres, joint investments in buoys and coastal radars, and shared forecast and climate records. Training pipelines would ensure expertise is distributed, not trapped in a few capitals. The aim is simple: when the next great storm gathers, no one waits for a permission slip from Washington or a price quote from Silicon Valley to know it is coming.

The choice before us

The climate signal is getting louder. Whether democracies can still hear it depends on institutions that measure, model, share and act — together. Treat climate cooperation as optional, and uncertainty becomes the policy. Insulate core climate services from politics, and societies buy time, safety and trust. For India, the choice is urgent — and regional leadership is the way through.