Saudi Arabia, Iran Protests and the Surprise Break from Rivalry: Why Riyadh Opposed a US Strike

For decades, rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran shaped West Asian geopolitics, fuelling proxy wars from Yemen to Lebanon. Yet, when Iran was shaken by mass protests and US President “Donald Trump” openly threatened military action against Tehran, Riyadh did something unexpected: it opposed an American strike. Saudi Arabia even conveyed that its airspace or territory would not be used for any attack. This marked a striking departure from its earlier posture towards Iran — and points to deeper anxieties reshaping Gulf geopolitics.

A Rivalry That Defined the Region

For years, Saudi Arabia, a Sunni monarchy, and Iran, a Shia theocracy, backed opposing camps across West Asia. Iran supported Shia militias and allied regimes in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, while Saudi Arabia mobilised Sunni factions and state partners to contain Iranian influence. This rivalry was often described as a sectarian cold war, though it was fundamentally geopolitical.

Against this backdrop, Riyadh’s silence during Iran’s recent protests — and its active lobbying against US military action alongside Qatar, Oman and Turkiye — stood out sharply.

Why Riyadh Fears the Precedent of “Liberation by Force”

One key reason lies in Saudi Arabia’s discomfort with the narrative that external military punishment is justified by internal repression. Despite their ideological differences, both Saudi Arabia and Iran are authoritarian systems. If Iran can be targeted militarily under the banner of “liberation”, similar arguments could someday be deployed against Gulf monarchies — especially if they drift from Washington’s strategic orbit.

What differentiates Iran is not governance quality, but geopolitics. Saudi Arabia remains deeply integrated into global trade and investment flows and hosts US troops. Iran, crippled by sanctions and estranged from Washington and Tel Aviv, is far more vulnerable.

The Shadow of Iraq and Libya

The second concern is instability. Gulf states have watched how external interventions devastated Iraq and Libya, producing prolonged chaos rather than political reform. Iran, with a population of over 90 million, collapsing violently could unleash refugee flows, economic shocks and cross-border insecurity across the Gulf.

For Saudi Arabia, which prioritises internal stability and economic transformation, a disintegrating Iran next door represents a nightmare scenario — even if Tehran is a rival.

Israel’s Expanding Military Footprint

Geopolitics, however, is the most decisive factor. Since October 7, 2023, Israel has bombed multiple countries across the region. Iran-backed “Hezbollah” has been weakened, while in Syria, the pro-Iran regime of “Bashar al-Assad” collapsed.

In June, Israel bombed Iran directly. In September, it even struck Qatar — a US ally — in a failed attempt to assassinate Hamas leaders. For Gulf monarchies, this signalled that Israeli military action was no longer bounded by traditional red lines.

Why the Fall of Iran Alarms Saudi Arabia

If Iran’s Islamic Republic were to collapse, the regional balance of power would tilt decisively in Israel’s favour. An emboldened Israel, backed by the US, could pursue unchecked dominance across West Asia — a prospect that deeply worries Arab states.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia has growing doubts about the durability of the US security umbrella. Washington’s selective engagement and tolerance of Israeli actions have reinforced these concerns.

Saudi Arabia’s Quiet Strategic Recalibration

In response, Riyadh has begun diversifying its security partnerships. It has forged closer ties with nuclear-armed Pakistan, sought improved relations with “Türkiye”, rebuilt bridges with Qatar after the 2017 blockade, and strengthened coordination with Egypt.

Seen in this light, Saudi Arabia’s opposition to a US strike on Iran is less about sympathy for Tehran and more about preventing a violent collapse that could destabilise the region, empower Israel disproportionately, and eventually threaten the kingdom’s own security.

Riyadh’s stance reflects a broader shift in West Asia: traditional rivalries are being re-evaluated, not through ideology, but through the hard calculus of stability, power balance, and long-term survival.