North Atlantic Current

The North Atlantic Current, also referred to as the North Atlantic Drift or the North Atlantic Sea Movement, forms a major component of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation system. This warm, powerful western boundary current extends the Gulf Stream northeastward across the ocean, transporting large volumes of heat and saline water towards higher latitudes. Its influence on regional climate, marine ecosystems, and large-scale ocean circulation has long been recognised, although contemporary research increasingly emphasises its sensitivity to climatic change and the potential consequences of its alteration.
Emerging at the point where the Gulf Stream veers northward near the Southeast Newfoundland Rise, the North Atlantic Current forms a crucial link in the global thermohaline circulation. It interacts with several other major currents, supplies heat to the North Atlantic basin, and ultimately plays a significant role in moderating temperatures in parts of north-western Europe and the Arctic fringe.

Origin, Pathway, and Flow Characteristics

The North Atlantic Current begins where the Gulf Stream encounters the Southeast Newfoundland Rise, a prominent undersea ridge extending from the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. From this point, the current flows northward along the eastern edge of the Grand Banks between 40°N and 51°N before turning sharply eastward to cross the Atlantic Ocean. It transports substantial quantities of warm tropical water—over 40 Sverdrups near its southern formation zone and roughly 20 Sverdrups as it crosses the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.
Despite significant meandering influenced by underwater topography, the current differs from the Gulf Stream in that its meanders tend to remain stable rather than producing frequent eddies. Upon approaching the tail of the Grand Banks near 50°W, the colder components of the Gulf Stream divert north while the Azores Current branches southwards. The North Atlantic Current subsequently flows northeast of the Flemish Cap and, after broadening across the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, splits into distinct branches.
A colder north-eastward flow and a warmer eastward branch make up the principal division. The warmer branch eventually arches southward, diverting subtropical waters while allowing subpolar waters—including contributions from the recirculating Labrador Current—to dominate much of the North Atlantic. Further east, near the European continental margin, the current divides again: one branch becomes the Canary Current as it curves southeast past north-west Africa, while the other continues northwards along the coasts of the British Isles and Scandinavia. Additional branches include the Irminger Current and the Norwegian Current, both of which help transport warm water into high-latitude regions.

Climate Influence and Atmospheric Interactions

For centuries, the North Atlantic Current and the Gulf Stream were believed to be the primary drivers of Europe’s comparatively mild winters. Although these currents do affect regional temperatures by inhibiting sea-ice formation at very high latitudes, modern climatology shows that atmospheric circulation patterns and prevailing westerly winds play a more decisive role in shaping the winter climate contrast between Europe and eastern North America.
Nevertheless, the North Atlantic Current remains significant in regulating sea surface temperatures, supporting marine life, and stabilising climatic conditions along north-western Europe. Its influence is interwoven with the complex dynamics of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a system of deep and surface flows that redistribute heat across the globe.

Climate Change and Potential Circulation Collapse

Concerns over the stability of the North Atlantic Current have become increasingly prominent in climate science. The regions of deep convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas underpin the renewal of dense subpolar waters. Observations from 1997 to 2009 showed no sustained weakening of Labrador Sea outflow, and convection intensified markedly from 2012 onwards, reaching strong levels in 2016. This strengthened mixing has been associated with increases in marine primary production. However, long-term reconstructions spanning 150 years suggest that even recent deep convection remains weak compared with historical baselines.
Climate models indicate that under certain global warming scenarios, convection in the Labrador–Irminger Seas could collapse, potentially triggering the failure of the entire subpolar gyre circulation. This collapse is thought to constitute a climate tipping point: a shift that would be difficult or impossible to reverse even if temperatures later fall. Rapid regional cooling could follow, with implications for agriculture, industrial activity, water resources, and energy systems throughout Western Europe and along the eastern seaboard of the United States.
Studies using CMIP6 climate models show considerable variability. Only four out of 35 models simulate a collapse scenario, though these include all models capable of representing the North Atlantic Current with high fidelity. As a result, the estimated probability of abrupt European cooling due to current collapse stands at roughly one-third, lower than earlier estimates but still of major concern.
Recent work has connected past disruptions of the subpolar gyre to climatic episodes such as the Little Ice Age. A 2022 review of climate tipping points suggested that collapse could be triggered by global warming of around 1.8°C, with a possible range between 1.1°C and 3.8°C depending on model uncertainty. Once triggered, the collapse may unfold within a decade, with a broader window of 5–50 years.
A 2023 study projected that the AMOC, of which the North Atlantic Current forms a part, could collapse as early as mid-century if high greenhouse gas emissions persist. Such a collapse may reduce global mean temperature by up to 0.5°C and cause major shifts in regional precipitation patterns, with wide-ranging environmental and socio-economic consequences.

Broader Implications and Scientific Importance

The North Atlantic Current remains a critical component of the global climate system. Its transport of warm water to subpolar regions supports ecological productivity, shapes weather patterns, and contributes to the stability of the broader Atlantic circulation. The possibility of its future weakening or collapse, though uncertain, underscores the sensitivity of ocean processes to anthropogenic climate change.
Understanding the behaviour, variability, and long-term risks associated with the North Atlantic Current is therefore essential for predicting climate impacts across the Northern Hemisphere. Continued monitoring, advanced modelling, and interdisciplinary research will be vital in determining how this influential current may respond to an increasingly warming world.