‘It’s going down’: After Venezuela, why is Donald Trump threatening Cuba

After the dramatic capture of Venezuela’s long-time leader Nicolás Maduro, US President Donald Trump has turned his attention to another old adversary — Cuba. By warning Havana that Venezuelan oil and money will be cut off unless it “makes a deal” with Washington, Trump has injected fresh volatility into US–Cuba relations at a moment when the island nation is already grappling with its worst economic crisis in decades.

What triggered Trump’s warning to Cuba?

The immediate trigger was the US military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of “Nicolás Maduro”. Following this intervention, Trump publicly declared that Cuba would no longer receive oil or financial support linked to Venezuela’s energy sector, urging the Communist-run island to “make a deal” before it was “too late”.

For decades, Cuba relied heavily on subsidised Venezuelan crude to keep its power plants, transport systems and industries running. With Maduro removed and Venezuelan oil tankers seized or rerouted, that lifeline has abruptly snapped. Shipping data now shows no fuel cargoes leaving Venezuelan ports for Cuba, tightening the screws on Havana’s already fragile economy.

Why Venezuelan oil mattered so much to Cuba

Venezuela was Cuba’s single most important energy partner, supplying roughly 26,500 barrels per day — nearly half of the island’s fuel deficit. In return, Cuba provided security and intelligence assistance to successive governments in Caracas. Even as Venezuela’s refining capacity declined, this arrangement remained central to Cuba’s energy security.

With that support gone, Cuba is being forced onto the open market, where fuel is more expensive and harder to secure under US sanctions. Mexico has emerged as a limited alternative supplier, but as President “Claudia Sheinbaum” has indicated, these shipments are modest compared to what Venezuela once provided.

How Cuba was affected during Maduro’s capture

The fallout was not just economic. Cuba confirmed that 32 of its armed forces and intelligence personnel were killed during the US operation in Venezuela. They had been stationed in Caracas under a bilateral security agreement, though Havana has not disclosed their precise role.

The deaths, combined with Trump’s warning, provoked sharp reactions from Cuban President “Miguel Díaz-Canel”, who accused Washington of treating geopolitics like a business transaction. Rejecting Trump’s call to “make a deal”, Díaz-Canel asserted Cuba’s sovereignty and warned that the country would defend itself against external pressure.

The deeper economic crisis Cuba is facing

Even before the loss of Venezuelan oil, Cuba was struggling. Power outages now stretch for hours across much of the island, fuel shortages have crippled transport, and food and medicine remain scarce. Hospitals report difficulty sourcing basic supplies, while long queues at petrol stations have become routine.

These conditions have fuelled a historic wave of emigration, with hundreds of thousands of Cubans leaving over the past five years, most heading to the United States. While US intelligence assessments suggest the Cuban state is not on the brink of collapse, the loss of stable energy imports is expected to make governance far more difficult.

Trump’s broader strategy in the region

Trump’s threat to Cuba reflects a wider push to reassert US influence across Latin America and the Caribbean. Senior officials, including Secretary of State “Marco Rubio”, have openly suggested that Havana should feel uneasy after the Venezuela operation. Rubio, a long-time critic of the Cuban government, has repeatedly highlighted Cuba’s role in supporting Maduro.

Trump’s rhetoric has gone further, portraying the removal of Maduro as proof that US military power has displaced foreign influence in the region. Republican lawmakers have echoed this line, arguing that Cuba’s leadership is nearing the end of its rule after decades of economic hardship.

Why Cuba has little room to manoeuvre

With Venezuelan supplies halted, Cuba now depends on costly spot-market fuel purchases and small shipments from countries like Mexico. Its ageing refineries limit its ability to process crude efficiently, increasing reliance on refined fuel imports — precisely the kind most affected by US sanctions.

The consequences ripple across the economy. Electricity shortages disrupt irrigation and agriculture, transport bottlenecks affect food distribution, and industrial output continues to slide. Each blackout deepens public frustration and accelerates emigration.

What this standoff signals for US–Cuba relations

More than six decades after Fidel Castro’s revolution, US–Cuba relations remain defined by sanctions, mistrust and ideological confrontation. Trump’s warning — summed up in his blunt phrase, “It’s going down” — suggests a return to overt pressure rather than engagement.

For Havana, the message is clear: without Venezuelan oil, economic pain will intensify. For Washington, the gamble is whether squeezing Cuba harder will force political concessions — or simply push the island deeper into crisis without delivering strategic gains.