India’s Rice Export Boom vs a Drying Heartland: Why Punjab and Haryana’s Water Crisis Is Deepening

India becoming the world’s largest producer and exporter of rice this year was projected as a moment of national pride — proof of farmer resilience and policy success. But behind record exports and rising minimum support prices lies a growing ecological faultline. In the rice heartlands of “Punjab” and “Haryana”, farmers are drilling ever deeper into the earth as groundwater levels collapse, raising urgent questions about how long India’s rice-led growth can remain sustainable.

A production milestone that masks rural distress

India has nearly doubled its rice exports over the past decade, crossing 20 million metric tonnes in the latest fiscal year. This surge has been supported by assured procurement and rising minimum prices, which together make rice among the safest crops for farmers.

Yet in villages across Punjab and Haryana, the mood is far from celebratory. Farmers say groundwater that could be reached at around 30 feet a decade ago now requires borewells of 80 to 200 feet. The costs of deeper drilling, longer pipes, and powerful pumps are pushing many into debt, even as output rises.

Why Punjab and Haryana are especially vulnerable

Unlike eastern and southern India, where irrigation relies on a mix of canals, tanks, and rainfall, rice cultivation in Punjab and Haryana depends overwhelmingly on groundwater. This structural dependence makes farmers acutely vulnerable to both weak monsoons and excessive extraction.

Government data shows that large parts of both states are now classified as “over-exploited” or “critical” aquifers. Annual extraction exceeds natural recharge by 35–57%, meaning groundwater is being mined faster than it can replenish — even after two years of good monsoons.

The subsidy trap: how policy locks farmers into water-intensive rice

Economists point to a powerful policy feedback loop. Guaranteed procurement and a minimum support price that has risen roughly 70% over the past decade make rice financially irresistible. Add to this heavily subsidised electricity for agriculture, and the cost of pumping groundwater appears artificially low.

As Avinash Kishore of the “International Food Policy Research Institute” notes, the paradox is stark: one of the world’s most water-stressed countries is effectively paying farmers to extract vast amounts of groundwater.

The hidden water footprint of India’s rice

Producing one kilogram of rice in India consumes an estimated 3,000–4,000 litres of water — 20–60% higher than the global average. In Punjab and Haryana, where paddy fields are flooded for long durations, this footprint is even heavier.

India already grows far more rice than it needs domestically, despite supporting a population of over 1.4 billion. Exporting surplus rice therefore also means exporting “virtual water” — water embedded in crops — from regions that can least afford to lose it.

Climate risk and the illusion of recent good monsoons

Strong monsoon rainfall over the past two years has not reversed groundwater decline. This underlines a critical policy misunderstanding: rainfall alone cannot compensate for structurally excessive extraction.

As climate variability increases, dependence on deep aquifers makes farmers more exposed, not less. Once groundwater drops below economically reachable levels, entire farming systems risk collapse — regardless of market prices or export demand.

Are policymakers beginning to rethink incentives?

There are early signs of course correction. Haryana has introduced a subsidy of ₹17,500 per hectare to encourage a shift to less water-intensive crops such as millets. However, the incentive applies for only one season, limiting its effectiveness against decades of rice-centric policy signals.

Experts argue that meaningful change will require:

• Long-term income assurance for alternative crops, not one-off incentives
• Gradual rebalancing of MSP and procurement away from water-intensive cereals
• Rationalisation of power subsidies to reflect groundwater scarcity
• Expansion of crop diversification programmes linked to assured markets

Without such reforms, India’s rice success story risks turning into a slow-moving water crisis — one where rising exports coexist with sinking aquifers, and today’s production triumphs undermine tomorrow’s food security.