India’s Record Grain Output, Punjab’s Deepening Farm Crisis

India overtaking China as the world’s largest rice producer and the expansion of wheat acreage to a record high in the current rabi season are being showcased as markers of agricultural success. But in Punjab — the state that once underwrote India’s food security during the Green Revolution — these milestones underscore a troubling paradox. High production has come at the cost of ecological collapse, stagnant farm incomes and rising political unrest, exposing the limits of an agricultural model frozen in the past.

Why Punjab’s success story now looks like a trap

Punjab’s agriculture is overwhelmingly locked into the wheat–paddy cycle. Together, these two crops account for nearly 85 per cent of the state’s gross cropped area. This is not accidental. Decades of assured procurement at minimum support prices, subsidised electricity for irrigation, and an unmatched procurement infrastructure have made wheat and rice the least risky choices for farmers.

In an environment of rising input costs and volatile markets, farmers rationally grow what policy rewards. Crop diversification has therefore remained more slogan than substance. Without the same guarantees, alternatives like maize, pulses, oilseeds or horticulture become high-risk bets rather than viable transitions.

Why diversification keeps failing on the ground

Successive governments have urged Punjab’s farmers to diversify, but the structural incentives have barely shifted. Prices of non-staple crops fluctuate sharply, procurement is unreliable, and storage, processing and market linkages are weak or absent. A one-time incentive cannot offset the absence of assured buyers or institutional familiarity with wheat and rice.

For farmers already burdened by debt, diversification feels less like reform and more like gambling. Predictably, security trumps sustainability.

The ecological cost of the wheat–paddy model

The environmental consequences are now stark. Paddy cultivation in a semi-arid region has driven groundwater depletion to alarming levels. According to the Central Ground Water Board, Punjab records the highest rate of groundwater extraction in the country, with over three-quarters of its groundwater blocks classified as overexploited. In several districts, the water table is falling by nearly a metre each year.

As tube wells are drilled deeper, electricity consumption rises and cultivation costs spiral. Soil health has also deteriorated. Repeated mono-cropping and heavy fertiliser use have depleted organic carbon and micronutrients, while stubble burning — a byproduct of mechanised paddy harvesting — has become an annual environmental emergency affecting regions far beyond Punjab.

Economic security without prosperity

Procurement at MSP has ensured price stability, but it has not delivered prosperity. Input costs for seeds, fertilisers, diesel and labour have risen faster than returns. Small and marginal farmers, heavily dependent on credit, remain especially vulnerable. Punjab continues to report farmer suicides every year, underscoring the gap between production security and income security.

This distress increasingly spills into the political sphere. Farmers’ protests — from mandis to highways — reflect unresolved grievances over delayed procurement, unsold stocks and demands for a legal guarantee for MSP. Police action at protest sites such as Shambhu and Khanauri has further deepened mistrust between farmers and the state.

A national policy contradiction laid bare

Punjab’s predicament exposes a deeper contradiction in India’s agricultural policy. On the one hand, record rice production and expanding wheat acreage are celebrated as national achievements. On the other, states like Punjab are urged to diversify for environmental reasons.

As long as agencies like the Food Corporation of India procure wheat and rice in bulk while alternative crops are left to market vagaries, farmers will remain locked into staples. Diversification cannot succeed if monoculture continues to be systematically rewarded.

What a credible transition would require

If pulses, oilseeds and maize are genuine national priorities — for nutrition, import substitution and sustainability — they must receive procurement assurance, price support and infrastructure investment comparable to wheat and rice. Punjab’s farmers cannot be expected to bear the adjustment costs of national food policy alone.

The state also has the potential to move towards high-value agriculture — dairy, vegetables, fruits and food processing. But this transition demands investment in cold chains, logistics, agro-industries, and cooperative models that protect small farmers from corporate dominance.

The generational risk and the road ahead

Punjab’s agrarian crisis has a generational dimension. Younger farmers increasingly see agriculture as high-effort, low-dignity work with uncertain returns. Many are seeking livelihoods outside farming — or outside the country. Without structural reform, Punjab risks losing not just groundwater and soil health, but also its human capital.

Ultimately, Punjab is a cautionary tale for India. It shows the dangers of measuring agricultural success solely in tonnes produced rather than sustainability achieved. The state fed the nation when it mattered most. Today, it needs a new social contract — one that balances food security with ecological survival and farmer welfare.

India’s record grain production should prompt reflection, not complacency. For Punjab, the choice is stark: continue down a path of diminishing returns, or undertake a difficult but necessary transition that can secure the future of its farmers and the credibility of India’s promise of sustainable agriculture.