India–US Relations Under Trump 2.0: Why the 25-Year Upward Curve Is Showing Signs of Strain

The exuberant arrival of Ambassador-designate Sergio Gor at the American embassy in New Delhi on January 12 and his optimistic remarks briefly revived hopes of restoring the momentum that defined India–US relations for nearly a quarter-century. Yet, behind the diplomatic bonhomie, deeper shifts in Washington’s worldview under President Donald Trump suggest that the relationship may have entered a more uncertain phase—one shaped less by partnership and more by transactional power politics.

Why the Embassy Optics Mask a Strategic Stall

Indian policymakers in South Block are keenly watching for signals that the long-negotiated bilateral trade agreement—said to be ready for Trump’s signature—will finally see daylight. However, remarks attributed to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicate that Trump is awaiting a deferential outreach from Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

For New Delhi, such a move carries risks. Recent experience with Trump’s diplomacy suggests that supplication invites not accommodation but contempt. European leaders have already felt the sting of public rebukes and shifting goalposts. In Trump’s worldview, respect flows from leverage—not sentiment or shared values.

In Trump’s Card Game, China Holds the Winning Hand

The central asymmetry in Trump’s foreign policy lies in his treatment of China. With its dominance over rare earths and strategic minerals, Beijing wields tangible economic power. This has made Trump conspicuously deferential toward President Xi Jinping, with talk of a possible “grand bargain” redefining US–China relations.

This deference has strategic consequences. When Japan faced Chinese pressure over its prime minister’s comments on Taiwan, Trump reportedly cautioned Tokyo against provoking Beijing. His remark that Taiwan’s fate was “for China to decide”—while expressing mere “unhappiness” at a potential invasion—has been read by many as a quiet write-off of Taiwan.

What This Means for the Indo-Pacific and the Quad

Such ambiguity strikes at the heart of the Indo-Pacific strategy, where India has been a key partner. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—bringing together India, the US, Japan, and Australia—was premised on balancing China’s rise. Gor’s suggestion that Trump might visit India only “in a year or two” hints that the Quad may no longer rank high on Washington’s priority list.

If the US dilutes its commitment to the Indo-Pacific, the carefully cultivated assumption of strategic continuity collapses. For India, which invested diplomatic capital in the Quad as a hedge against Chinese assertiveness, this raises uncomfortable questions about over-reliance on US strategy.

From Personal Rapport to Structural Realities

The Modi government had initially welcomed Trump’s return to office in January 2025, betting on ideological affinity and personal rapport. Modi’s early visit to Washington and the swift convening of a Quad foreign ministers’ meeting by Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforced expectations of continuity.

Those assumptions now appear fragile. While personal pique—over India not publicly crediting Trump for a ceasefire during Operation Sindoor or nominating him for a Nobel Peace Prize—may have aggravated tensions, the deeper drivers are structural: America’s relative decline, China’s rise, and a global order in flux.

Where Cooperation Endures—and Where It Frays

Despite the chill at the strategic level, functional cooperation remains resilient. Defence ties, counter-terrorism coordination, and scientific and technological collaboration continue largely undisturbed. These are significant assets for India’s economic transformation and technological upgrading, and New Delhi has little incentive to jeopardise them.

At the same time, growing hostility toward Indian-Americans and expatriates in the US risks spilling over into public opinion at home, complicating diplomacy. Such undercurrents could erode the societal ballast that has long underpinned bilateral ties.

Rethinking India’s Options in a Cold War 2.0 World

The broader backdrop is a world edging toward a Cold War 2.0—one marked not by rigid blocs but by a mix of confrontation and collusion between Washington and Beijing. In this landscape, India cannot afford strategic complacency.

The way forward lies less in seeking favour and more in strengthening fundamentals: accelerating growth, building economic and technological capabilities, stabilising the neighbourhood, and cultivating a diversified network of partnerships across regions. The lessons of the earlier Cold War—strategic autonomy, issue-based alignments, and internal capacity-building—may once again become relevant as India navigates a more transactional, less predictable United States.