How the Fall of Iran Could Reshape the World — And Why India Has a Lot at Stake

Powerful protests across Iran have raised the most serious question in decades: what if the Islamic Republic collapses? As demonstrators openly call for the removal of Supreme Leader “Ayatollah Ali Khamenei”, the possibility of regime change — once unthinkable — is now part of global strategic calculations. For India and the wider world, the consequences could be profound, destabilising West Asia and reshaping geopolitical alignments far beyond the region.

Why Iran is witnessing its most dangerous unrest in years

The latest wave of protests, triggered by economic collapse, soaring inflation and a sharp currency devaluation, has quickly moved beyond bread-and-butter issues. What began in Tehran’s bazaars has morphed into nationwide demonstrations openly demanding an end to Khamenei’s three-decade-long rule. Chants such as “Death to Khamenei” mark a rare and direct challenge to the very foundations of the Islamic Republic.

The state’s response has followed a familiar pattern — internet shutdowns, mass arrests and lethal force. Yet the scale of unrest, coupled with open elite dissent and international pressure, suggests the regime is facing a level of internal resistance not seen since the early years after the 1979 revolution.

The shadow of foreign intervention and US signalling

Adding volatility to an already combustible situation is the posture of the United States. President “Donald Trump” has issued explicit warnings against violent repression, hinting at possible military action if protesters are massacred. Given Trump’s past willingness to use force abroad, these statements have heightened fears of external intervention — a factor that could accelerate regime collapse or plunge Iran into a wider conflict.

For Iranians, foreign involvement is a double-edged sword: while it weakens the regime’s sense of impunity, it also reinforces hardline narratives of external conspiracy, potentially justifying even harsher crackdowns.

What happens if the Islamic Republic falls?

Contrary to popular imagination, the fall of the clerical regime is unlikely to produce a smooth democratic transition. Iran lacks a unified opposition leadership, and decades of repression have hollowed out political institutions capable of managing change.

Three destabilising scenarios worry analysts most:

• A violent power struggle between factions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
• Rogue behaviour by Iran-backed militias across West Asia
• A prolonged civil conflict fuelled by ethnic, sectarian and ideological divides

Groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shia militias in Iraq could turn into autonomous armed actors, further fragmenting an already fragile region.

Why regime collapse in Iran matters deeply for India

For “India”, Iran is not a distant theatre of unrest but a crucial strategic partner in West and Central Asia. The most immediate concern is the “Chabahar Port”, which offers India direct access to Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing Pakistan.

A chaotic transition in Tehran could stall or reverse India’s investments, while simultaneously opening space for China to expand its footprint along the Arabian Sea. More broadly, instability in Iran threatens India’s energy security — nearly 60% of its oil and gas imports come from West Asia — and the safety of the 8–9 million Indians living and working in the region.

Russia, the Gulf, and the risk of a wider regional shock

The fallout would not stop at India. “Russia” relies heavily on Iran for drones, ammunition and sanctions evasion linked to the Ukraine war. A regime collapse would disrupt supply chains across the Caspian Sea and deprive Moscow of a key strategic partner.

Meanwhile, the Gulf states — particularly “United Arab Emirates” and Saudi Arabia — fear a refugee influx and the spillover of unrest. Existing rivalries within the Gulf Cooperation Council could sharpen, with Iran becoming the new arena for proxy competition rather than reconciliation.

The uncertainty around alternatives to Khamenei

Some protesters have rallied behind Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last Shah, but his support remains fragmented and largely diaspora-driven. Critics question whether he possesses the organisational depth or political legitimacy to govern a deeply polarised society. The absence of a credible, inclusive post-regime roadmap raises the risk that Iran could trade authoritarian stability for prolonged disorder.

A global turning point with no easy outcomes

The possible fall of Iran’s Islamic Republic would mark one of the most consequential geopolitical ruptures of the 21st century. While many Iranians yearn for freedom from clerical rule, the immediate aftermath could unleash forces far more violent and unpredictable.

For India, the challenge will be to safeguard strategic interests without becoming entangled in a regional maelstrom. For the world, Iran’s fate is a stark reminder that dismantling entrenched regimes rarely brings instant liberation — more often, it opens the door to an era of dangerous uncertainty.