Global GHG Emissions Poised for Record High in 2025

The latest Global Carbon Budget assessment warns that worldwide greenhouse gas emissions are set to reach unprecedented levels in 2025, despite a decade of commitments under the Paris Agreement. The findings, released during COP30 in Belem, indicate that fossil fuel-linked emissions continue to rise, underscoring widening gaps between climate pledges and actual progress.

Record Fossil Fuel Emissions and Rising Global Output

The study projects global fossil fuel emissions at 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, marking a historic peak. This reflects an estimated 1.1% increase from 2024, continuing an upward trend that has pushed global GHG output to around 10% above 2015 levels. Researchers caution that at current rates, the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C could be depleted within four years.

India’s Emissions Growth Slows Amid Renewable Push

India is expected to contribute about 3.23 billion tonnes of emissions in 2025. Although its output is still increasing, growth has slowed to around 1.4%, attributed to expanded solar generation and reduced cooling needs due to an early monsoon. Analysts note that coal consumption growth has weakened significantly, mirroring similar patterns observed in China.

Major Emitters: Sharp Rise in the United States

China remains the world’s top emitter with a projected 12.3 billion tonnes this year. The United States follows at five billion tonnes, recording the steepest annual rise among major economies at approximately 1.9%. This marks a reversal from previous years of flat or negative growth. India ranks third in absolute emissions but remains far lower on a per capita basis.

Exam Oriented Facts

• Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to reach 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025.
• The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C may be exhausted by 2029.
• India’s emissions are expected to rise by 1.4% in 2025.
• Oil and gas together contribute 55% of global fossil fuel emissions.

Growing Scientific Concern Over Warming Limits

Experts warn that maintaining the 1.5°C target is increasingly unlikely without immediate and sharp reductions in fossil fuel use. The report also highlights that over 35 countries have managed to cut emissions while expanding their economies, showing that decoupling is feasible. However, researchers stress that unless global oil and gas dependence declines rapidly, climate risks will escalate beyond manageable limits.