Explained: How India’s Exports to the US Rose in 2025 Despite Higher Tariffs

India’s trade data for November 2025 initially appeared counterintuitive. At a time when the United States had imposed higher tariffs on several Indian goods, not only did India’s overall exports remain resilient, but shipments to the US actually rebounded. What was less clear then was why this had happened. Newly released Foreign Trade Performance Analysis data now provide a sharper picture — one that reveals both sectoral stress and a quiet but effective export pivot.

To isolate the impact of US tariffs, export figures from September to November 2025 were compared with the average for the same months in 2023–24. The focus here is limited to commodities where India already had significant dependence on the US market. This allows a clearer view of how exporters responded once tariffs came into force, without distortions from marginal or incidental trade flows.

The results show that headline export growth masks sharply divergent trends across sectors.

The most striking growth came from products that largely escaped the US tariff net. Exports of telecom instruments — dominated by smartphones — surged by an extraordinary 237% between the two periods. Electrical machinery exports also grew by about 15%.

These gains were large enough to offset steep declines in tariff-hit sectors, explaining why overall exports to the US rose despite the imposition of new duties. In effect, smartphones became the shock absorber for India’s US trade in late 2025.

For traditional export segments, the picture was far less reassuring. Pearls and precious stones exports to the US collapsed by nearly 78.5%. Gold jewellery shipments fell by 39%, cotton fabrics by 23%, marine products by 17%, and readymade cotton garments by about 4.6%.

Left in isolation, these numbers suggest significant stress. But they do not tell the full story.

The data point to two different adjustment strategies by Indian exporters.

In some sectors, the tariff impact was partially absorbed — exports to the US fell, but overall shipments remained broadly stable. In others, exporters not only absorbed the US shock but expanded aggressively into alternative markets, pushing total exports higher despite reduced access to the American market.

Marine products illustrate this second strategy particularly well.

Exports of marine products to the US declined by roughly 17%, yet total marine exports rose by almost the same margin over the period. The US remained a dominant buyer, accounting for over 30% of India’s marine exports in 2025, but exporters clearly did not remain dependent on a single market.

China, already a major destination, increased its intake of Indian marine products by 23%. More significantly, Indian exporters made visible breakthroughs in Europe. Between September and November 2025, India shipped over $50 million worth of marine products to Spain — a relatively new destination. Exports to Belgium jumped by 124%, while shipments to the Netherlands (56%), Germany (65%) and Italy (23%) also recorded strong growth.

As the Seafood Exporters Association of India’s Andhra Pradesh president, K. Anand Kumar, put it, rising shipments to Europe and China have softened the blow from US tariffs — while also underlining the need for fresh trade agreements to support the sector.

Readymade cotton garments followed a comparable trajectory. Although exports to the US dipped modestly, stronger demand from European markets helped stabilise overall shipments. Exporters were aided by currency conditions as well.

“The rupee at 90 is a good instrument for Indian exporters to locate new markets. It helps push exports to various markets,” said Siddhartha Rajagopal, Executive Director of the Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council — highlighting how exchange rate movements complemented market diversification.

The 2025 export story is therefore less about immunity to US tariffs and more about adjustment capacity. India’s export growth to the US was propped up by a narrow but powerful surge in smartphones. At the same time, tariff-hit sectors avoided a deeper slump by either cushioning losses or actively redirecting exports to Europe and Asia.

In short, India’s exporters did not beat tariffs — they worked around them. The resilience seen in late-2025 trade data reflects a mix of product composition, currency dynamics, and rapid market diversification. Whether this flexibility can be sustained if tariff pressures widen remains the question policymakers and exporters will be watching closely in 2026.