Donroe Doctrine? How Trump’s Venezuela Operation Signals a Hard Reset of the Global Order in 2026

The opening days of 2026 delivered a jolt to the international system. In a swift, unilateral operation, the United States abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, transferring them to U.S. custody on charges of undermining American security. Framed by U.S. President Donald Trump as a modern update of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, the episode has been dubbed the “Donroe Doctrine” — a muscular assertion that Washington alone guarantees order in the Western Hemisphere. The muted global response has raised deeper questions about whether the post-1945 rules-based order is quietly collapsing.

What exactly happened in Venezuela?

As 2026 unfolded, U.S. airborne forces carried out a rapid extraction of Venezuela’s leadership, bypassing diplomatic and multilateral channels altogether. The Trump administration justified the move as a security imperative, accusing the Maduro regime of threatening U.S. vital interests.

The operation was not presented as an aberration, but as doctrine. Mr. Trump explicitly linked it to the Monroe Doctrine, reiterating that the United States would tolerate no extra-hemispheric interference in the Americas. What distinguishes this episode from Cold War interventions is its brazenness: a sitting head of state was seized and jailed without war, sanction, or international mandate.

The National Security Strategy and a doctrine made explicit

A close reading of the November 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) suggests the Venezuela operation was carefully planned rather than impulsive. The document declares Washington’s intent to “reassert pre-eminence” in the Western Hemisphere and deny non-hemispheric competitors any military or strategic foothold.

In this sense, Venezuela appears less an isolated case and more a template. Implicit threats extend to Cuba, Colombia, and Mexico, while even Greenland is referenced as a “security necessity”. The NSS revives “shock and awe” tactics for a 21st-century context — rapid, demonstrative actions designed to deter rivals through spectacle and surprise.

Why global protests have been strikingly muted

Perhaps more telling than the operation itself has been the international reaction — or lack of it. Protests against the violation of Venezuelan sovereignty have been limited and largely symbolic. This silence suggests a widespread, if unspoken, belief that the old international order no longer constrains great powers.

There is growing concern that Washington’s precedent could legitimise similar moves elsewhere. China’s claim over Taiwan and Russia’s assertions in its near abroad are frequently cited as potential analogues. If the strongest power can act unilaterally without cost, others may feel emboldened to do the same.

Europe, Ukraine, and the recalibration of U.S. alliances

Europe features prominently — and critically — in the NSS. The document portrays the continent as strategically diminished, urging it to assume “primary responsibility” for its own defence. At the same time, Washington hints it could help Europe “regain greatness” by backing nationalist and so-called patriotic parties.

This recalibration coincides with signs that the war in Ukraine may be nudged toward a negotiated settlement in 2026 — one likely to satisfy neither side fully. U.S. policymakers warn that failure to stabilise the conflict could risk a wider European escalation, even as Washington signals interest in achieving “strategic stability” with Russia.

West Asia: fragile pauses and looming escalations

In West Asia, the picture is uneven. Israel’s intense military campaign of 2025 has paused, but peace remains elusive, especially in Gaza, where tensions simmer close to eruption. Simultaneously, Iran is gripped by internal unrest, with the Khamenei regime describing itself as fighting economic, psychological, military, and counter-terror wars simultaneously.

Western threats of additional sanctions, combined with Israeli and U.S. calculations, suggest an attempt to exploit Iran’s internal vulnerabilities to settle unfinished business from 2025. The risk of regional spillover remains high, even if large-scale war is temporarily avoided.

South Asia’s fault lines: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh

Northwest Asia, particularly Afghanistan, is poised for renewed instability. Groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban have regained momentum, exacerbating insecurity along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border. For Pakistan, this coincides with democratic backsliding, as the military consolidates power and Field Marshal Asim Munir overshadows Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Paradoxically, Islamabad has also gained favour in Washington. The U.S. has embraced Pakistan as a key regional ally, lifting arms restrictions and promising advanced weaponry — a move that unsettles New Delhi. Bangladesh, meanwhile, remains politically fragile, with uncertainty persisting despite promises of elections.

China’s steady gains amid great-power rivalry

For China, 2025 proved resilient rather than damaging. Despite intensifying rivalry with the U.S., Beijing weathered tariff pressures, upgraded manufacturing capacity, and reinforced its grip on global supply chains. Its restrictions on rare earth exports enhanced leverage over Washington, while its expanding footprint in Southeast Asia, the Eastern Pacific, and the Indian Ocean signals a gradual erosion of U.S. maritime dominance.

China’s growing Indian Ocean presence poses not only a challenge to regional states, but also to U.S. supremacy — reshaping the strategic calculus across Asia.

India at the crossroads in a harsher world

India enters 2026 strategically unsettled. Mr. Trump’s criticism of New Delhi for importing discounted Russian oil has cooled India–U.S. ties, contributing to diplomatic isolation in conflict zones like West Asia. Washington’s renewed military embrace of Pakistan compounds Indian anxieties.

Yet cooperation continues in selective arenas, including minilateral groupings such as I2U2 and the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor. Still, China’s trade leverage and Washington’s tariff threats leave India with limited room to manoeuvre economically.

Despite improved India–China ties after the 2025 Tianjin meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping, deeper stabilisation appears unlikely this year.

Terrorism as the persistent undercurrent of 2026

While India may avoid a major terror attack in 2026, terrorism remains an ever-present threat. West Asia’s volatility, Iran’s turmoil, and unresolved conflicts create fertile ground for extremist violence. Groups such as Islamic State and al-Qaeda are currently better positioned in Africa, but Asia and West Asia cannot be discounted.

In this evolving landscape, terrorism continues to rank among the most critical national security challenges — one that thrives amid weakened norms and unchecked power.