China Population Declines for Fourth Year Despite Incentives

China’s demographic decline deepened in 2025 as the country recorded its fourth consecutive annual fall in population, underlining mounting social and economic pressures despite expanded family-support policies. Official data released on Monday showed that the population fell by 3 million to 1.404 billion, keeping “China” as the world’s second-most populous nation, behind India.

Births Fall to Record Low in 2025

The number of births dropped sharply to 7.92 million in 2025, a fall of 1.62 million or 17 per cent from the previous year. This erased the modest rebound seen in 2024 and extended a longer trend of declining births that began after 2016. The crude birth rate fell to a record low of 5.63 births per 1,000 people, the weakest level since modern records began.

Fertility Rate Signals Long-Term Decline

China’s fertility rate continues to remain far below replacement level. The government last reported an official fertility rate of 1.3 in 2020, while recent estimates place it closer to 1.0. Both figures are well below the 2.1 births per woman required to maintain population size, pointing to sustained population shrinkage and accelerated ageing in the coming decades.

Economic Pressures Weigh on Family Decisions

Demographers link the decline to rising costs of living, intense educational competition, job market uncertainty, and slowing economic growth. Household budgets have come under strain amid a broader economic slowdown, reinforcing reluctance among younger couples to have children despite state encouragement.

Imporatnt Facts for Exams

• Replacement-level fertility rate is about 2.1 births per woman.
• China shifted from a one-child to a two-child policy in 2015.
• The three-child policy was introduced in 2021.
• India overtook China as the world’s most populous country in 2023.

Policy Shifts Show Limited Impact

Authorities have introduced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child and tax incentives for childcare services, while expanding maternity and childcare support. At the same time, contraceptives were removed from certain tax exemptions in 2025. Despite these measures, births continue to fall, highlighting the limits of policy interventions in reversing deep-rooted demographic and social trends.