NASA’s Surya AI
NASA launched Surya, an advanced artificial intelligence model designed to transform space weather prediction. Developed alongside IBM and trained on nine years of Solar Dynamics Observatory data, Surya offers early and accurate forecasts of solar flares and eruptions. These solar events can disrupt satellites, power grids, aviation, and GPS systems on Earth. By making Surya open-source, NASA aims to encourage global collaboration to enhance protection against space weather hazards.
About Space Weather and Its Impact
Space weather originates from solar eruptions such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These release charged particles and magnetic energy that travel through the solar system. When they reach Earth, they can damage satellites, cause power outages, disrupt aviation routes, and endanger astronauts. Predicting these events is vital for safeguarding modern technology and infrastructure.
Surya – NASA’s AI Model for Solar Forecasting
Surya uses machine learning to analyse vast solar data sets. Unlike traditional models, it detects subtle solar activity patterns and predicts eruptions up to two hours in advance. This improves forecast accuracy and lead time, offering better preparedness against space weather threats. Surya’s open-source nature encourages researchers worldwide to develop new applications and improve forecasting.
Technical Challenges in Modelling the Sun
The Sun’s complexity arises from simultaneous phenomena occurring at varied scales and durations. Traditional models fragmented the system due to computational limits. Surya combines spectral block layers and a long-short transformer backbone to capture broad and fine solar details. Overcoming memory constraints and merging frequency-aware with time-series modelling were key innovations enabling this comprehensive approach.
Scientific Use Cases
Surya successfully reproduced the St. Patrick’s Day geomagnetic storm of 2015, accurately capturing its coronal mass ejection. It excelled in four research tasks – forecasting active region emergence, predicting strong solar flares, estimating solar wind speeds up to four days ahead, and forecasting extreme ultraviolet spectra. Surya outperformed existing models by up to 16% in flare prediction, demonstrating its scientific value.
Collaborative Development
The project united experts from NASA centres, universities, industry, and research institutes. Collaboration was essential for bridging AI and heliophysics expertise. Supported by the National Science Foundation and NVIDIA, Surya represents a pioneering step toward AI-assisted heliophysics. Its open-source framework aims to elevate global research and improve space weather resilience.
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