Ethnic conflicts in Myanmar

Ethnic conflicts in Myanmar constitute one of the world’s longest-running internal disputes, rooted in historical grievances, political exclusion, and struggles over autonomy, identity, and resource control. The country’s complex mosaic of ethnic groups—numbering more than 135 officially recognised minorities—has shaped its socio-political landscape since independence. These conflicts have profoundly influenced Myanmar’s development, governance, and international relations.

Historical Background

Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, achieved independence from British colonial rule in 1948. During colonial administration, the British employed a “divide and rule” strategy, governing ethnic-majority areas and minority-dominated border regions separately. This policy fostered deep divisions between the Bamar (Burman) majority and numerous ethnic minorities such as the Shan, Kachin, Karen, Chin, Mon, Rakhine, and Wa.
At independence, ethnic minorities sought guarantees of autonomy within a federal framework, leading to the Panglong Agreement (1947), signed by General Aung San and several ethnic leaders. The agreement promised equal rights and self-determination to minorities; however, its implementation was abandoned after Aung San’s assassination. The failure to honour these commitments laid the foundation for decades of insurgency and mistrust.

Ethnic Composition and Regional Dynamics

Myanmar’s ethnic diversity is concentrated along its borderlands, which are often mountainous and resource-rich. The Bamar, forming about two-thirds of the population, dominate the central plains and political institutions, while minority groups inhabit peripheral regions.
Major ethnic groups and their conflict-affected regions include:

• Kachin: Located in the north, involved in long-standing armed conflict with the central government over autonomy and resource sharing.
• Shan: In the east, marked by multiple armed factions and a history of opium trade and militia control.
• Karen (Kayin): In the southeast, the Karen National Union (KNU) has fought for independence or federal autonomy since 1949.
• Chin: In the west, conflict centres on ethnic identity and political recognition.
• Rakhine (Arakan): In the southwest, conflict involves both ethnic Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims.
• Wa: Semi-autonomous region on the Chinese border under the United Wa State Army (UWSA), maintaining strong military and economic control.

Root Causes of Ethnic Conflict

The persistence of ethnic conflict in Myanmar can be attributed to a combination of historical, political, and economic factors:

• Failure of Federalism: The centralised political system dominated by the Bamar elite has denied minorities meaningful autonomy promised under the Panglong Agreement.
• Resource Competition: Ethnic regions are rich in jade, timber, natural gas, and hydropower. Control over these resources has fuelled armed struggles and illicit economies.
• Political Exclusion: Ethnic minorities have limited representation in national decision-making, leading to feelings of marginalisation and alienation.
• Cultural and Religious Discrimination: Suppression of minority languages, traditions, and religious practices—especially among Christian and Muslim groups—has deepened mistrust.
• Military Domination: The Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) has historically used heavy-handed tactics, often targeting civilians under the guise of counter-insurgency operations.

These structural inequalities have perpetuated cycles of violence, displacement, and human rights violations for decades.

Major Ethnic Insurgencies and Armed Groups

Since independence, Myanmar has witnessed continuous insurgencies by various ethnic armed organisations (EAOs). Some of the most prominent include:

• Kachin Independence Army (KIA): Established in 1961, seeks autonomy for Kachin State; fighting intensified after the collapse of a 17-year ceasefire in 2011.
• Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA): The military wing of the KNU, engaged in intermittent warfare since 1949, making it one of the world’s longest-running insurgencies.
• Shan State Army (SSA): Active in eastern Myanmar, involved in conflicts over control of the Shan highlands.
• Arakan Army (AA): Formed in 2009, advocating for Rakhine self-determination; has clashed extensively with government forces in recent years.
• United Wa State Army (UWSA): The largest and best-armed non-state force in Myanmar, controlling autonomous areas and maintaining relative peace with the central government.

These groups vary widely in size, objectives, and external support, but all share demands for greater self-rule and equitable resource sharing.

The Rohingya Crisis

One of the most severe manifestations of Myanmar’s ethnic conflict is the Rohingya crisis in Rakhine State. The Rohingya, a Muslim minority of Bengali origin, have faced systematic discrimination and statelessness since the 1982 Citizenship Law, which excluded them from recognised ethnic groups.
In 2017, a major military crackdown followed attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) on security posts. The Tatmadaw’s retaliatory campaign led to mass atrocities, including killings, sexual violence, and the burning of villages, prompting over 700,000 Rohingya to flee to neighbouring Bangladesh. International observers and the United Nations have described these actions as possible crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing.

Ceasefire Efforts and Peace Processes

Since the late 1980s, the Myanmar government has attempted several peace negotiations to integrate ethnic armed groups into the national framework.
Key initiatives include:

• Ceasefire Agreements (1989–1995): Partial truces with groups like the KIA and UWSA, allowing limited autonomy in exchange for halting hostilities.
• Union Peace Conference (2011 onwards): Initiated under President Thein Sein as part of political reforms and democratic transition.
• Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) – 2015: Signed by eight ethnic groups initially, later expanded to ten. However, major groups such as the KIA and AA did not sign, limiting its effectiveness.

Despite initial optimism, the peace process has stagnated due to mistrust, ongoing military offensives, and political instability following the 2021 military coup.

Impact of the 2021 Military Coup

The military coup of 1 February 2021, which overthrew the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi, drastically altered the conflict landscape. Many ethnic armed organisations denounced the coup and either supported or allied with the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs)—newly formed resistance groups opposing military rule.
This convergence of pro-democracy and ethnic forces has intensified nationwide conflict, creating unprecedented instability. Some regions have witnessed new alliances between EAOs and civilian militias, while others remain fragmented. The coup also reversed progress in peace negotiations and exacerbated humanitarian crises across the country.

Humanitarian and Socio-Economic Consequences

Decades of conflict have resulted in severe human suffering and economic underdevelopment:

• Over 1.5 million people have been internally displaced.
• Ethnic regions suffer from chronic poverty, limited healthcare, and weak infrastructure.
• Widespread human rights violations, including forced labour, sexual violence, and village destruction, have been documented.
• Illicit economies, such as drug trafficking and illegal mining, have thrived in conflict zones.

The continuous state of warfare has undermined national unity and deterred foreign investment, impeding Myanmar’s economic progress.

International Response

The international community has condemned human rights abuses and called for inclusive dialogue.

• United Nations, ASEAN, and Western governments have urged national reconciliation and protection of minority rights.
• Sanctions have been imposed on military leaders following the Rohingya atrocities and post-coup violence.
• Humanitarian agencies continue to provide aid to displaced communities, though access remains restricted by the military.

However, geopolitical interests—particularly the influence of China, India, and Russia—have complicated international consensus on Myanmar’s internal conflicts.

Prospects for Resolution

Achieving lasting peace in Myanmar requires a comprehensive federal framework recognising the political, cultural, and economic rights of all ethnic groups. Key steps include:

• Genuine implementation of federal democracy, ensuring shared governance and equitable resource distribution.
• Inclusive dialogue among the military, ethnic groups, and democratic forces.
• International support focused on mediation, humanitarian assistance, and institution-building.
• Strengthening of civil society and local governance in conflict zones.