ICRA’s forecast of Indian GDP Growth

Ratings agency ICRA revised its Indian GDP growth estimate, recently.

Highlights

  • According to ICRA’s estimate, there was an upward growth of 7.9 % in the second quarter of financial year 2021-22.
  • An increase in government spending in September resulted to an upgrade of GDP growth estimate in the second quarter.
  • As per earlier estimate, real GDP growth for the July-September period was 7.7%.
  • GDP of India had surged by over 20% in the first quarter, because of a low base as the first wave of covid-19 pandemic raged.
  • As per agency, there was a growth of 8.5%, 7.9% and 3% respectively across industry, services & agriculture and forestry & fishing for the same quarter.

RBI’s forecast

On the other hand, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has forecasted a growth of 9.5% for the full financial year 2021-22.

Why there was an upward trend?

There was an upward trend in Q2 of the current financial year, because the economic activity was supported by a pick-up in industrial and service sector volumes after covid-19 second wave settled down and vaccine coverage increased, furthermore, healthy Central and state Government spending, increasing demand from farm sector and robust merchandise exports also supported economic activity.

Government’s Spending

Non-interest revenue expenditure of central government expanded by 15 per cent in Q2 of FY22 as against the contraction of 7.3% in Q1 of FY22. Apart from that, revenue expenditure expanded by 13.1% in quarter 2 across 22 states, as compared to 10.6% growth in Q1 of the current financial year.

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