World Energy Outlook 2019

The World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2019 is an authoritative publication released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that provides a comprehensive analysis of global energy trends, policies, and scenarios shaping the world’s energy future. Published annually, the report serves as a key reference for governments, policymakers, and energy professionals worldwide. The 2019 edition offered crucial insights into the evolving global energy landscape, focusing on issues of energy security, environmental sustainability, and economic development.

Background and Context

The International Energy Agency (IEA), established in 1974 under the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), was created in response to the oil crises of the 1970s. Its principal aim is to ensure reliable, affordable, and clean energy for its member countries and the world at large.
The World Energy Outlook 2019 was published in November 2019 and examined the implications of current energy policies and future commitments in light of rapid technological advancements, climate change challenges, and shifting geopolitical dynamics. The report came at a time when the global energy system was undergoing profound transformation — driven by the rise of renewable energy, electrification, and the increasing urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement (2015).

Core Themes and Focus Areas

The WEO 2019 highlighted the dynamic interplay between energy demand, supply, and sustainability. It identified three central challenges shaping the world’s energy future:

1. Meeting Rising Global Energy Demand: Global population and economic growth were projected to drive a steady increase in energy demand, especially in developing economies such as India, China, and Southeast Asia.
2. Reducing Carbon Emissions: Despite growing renewable energy investments, global CO₂ emissions continued to rise, emphasising the urgent need for cleaner energy transitions.
3. Ensuring Energy Security and Affordability: The report stressed the need to maintain reliable energy supplies while shifting to low-carbon alternatives, especially in regions heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

Scenarios Presented in the Report

The WEO 2019 presented three key scenarios to explore possible future pathways of global energy development:

1. Current Policies Scenario (CPS):
   • Based on policies already implemented by governments.
   • Projects continued growth in energy demand and emissions due to ongoing reliance on fossil fuels.
   • Global energy demand expected to rise by about 1.3% per year until 2040.
2. Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS):
   • Formerly known as the New Policies Scenario, this reflects existing and announced government policies.
   • Envisions moderate improvement in energy efficiency and faster deployment of renewables.
   • Fossil fuels still dominate the global energy mix in 2040, but renewables make significant gains, accounting for nearly half of the electricity generation growth.
3. Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS):
   • Represents a pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement goals, ensuring universal access to modern energy by 2030 and drastically reducing emissions.
   • Involves a major shift towards renewables, nuclear energy, and carbon capture technologies.
   • Requires global CO₂ emissions to fall by over 60% by 2040 compared with 2018 levels.

Key Findings

The World Energy Outlook 2019 provided several notable projections and findings:

• Energy Demand Growth: Global primary energy demand was projected to rise by around 25% by 2040, with nearly half of the growth coming from India.
• Dominance of Renewables: Renewable energy, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV), emerged as the main driver of electricity generation growth, accounting for two-thirds of new capacity additions.
• Coal Decline: Global coal demand plateaued and was expected to decline gradually, particularly in Europe and North America, though it remained a major energy source in Asia.
• Oil and Gas Trends: Oil demand was projected to plateau in the 2030s, while natural gas continued to expand as a “transition fuel” due to its lower carbon intensity compared to coal.
• Electric Mobility: The number of electric cars was expected to rise to 330 million by 2040, significantly impacting oil demand in the transport sector.
• Access to Energy: The report noted that around 850 million people worldwide still lacked access to electricity in 2019, predominantly in Sub-Saharan Africa, underscoring the global energy inequality.
• Emissions Outlook: Without major policy changes, global CO₂ emissions were set to rise by about 100 million tonnes annually, hindering global climate goals.

Regional Insights

• India: Identified as the world’s largest source of energy demand growth, driven by rapid urbanisation, industrialisation, and rising living standards. India was expected to double its energy consumption by 2040.
• China: Though remaining the largest energy consumer, China’s energy mix was projected to shift significantly towards renewables and natural gas, reflecting its focus on reducing air pollution.
• Europe: Continued to lead in decarbonisation efforts, with ambitious renewable energy and emissions reduction targets.
• United States: Maintained its position as the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, contributing substantially to global supply security.

Implications for Energy Transition

The WEO 2019 emphasised that the pace of global energy transition was not yet sufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. The IEA called for:

• Accelerated renewable energy deployment and grid modernisation.
• Increased investment in energy efficiency, particularly in industry and buildings.
• Development of low-carbon technologies, including hydrogen, nuclear energy, and carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS).
• Policy coherence to align national strategies with global sustainability objectives.

Technological and Policy Recommendations

The report outlined specific measures to ensure a sustainable and secure energy future:

• Clean Energy Innovation: Greater investment in research and development of next-generation technologies.
• Energy Access Programmes: Targeted support for developing countries to achieve universal energy access.
• Phasing Out Inefficient Fossil Fuel Subsidies: Encouraging market reforms to promote renewables.
• Electrification of Transport and Industry: Accelerating the shift towards electric vehicles and green industrial processes.

Significance and Global Impact

The World Energy Outlook 2019 remains an important reference for policymakers and researchers, providing evidence-based insights into the challenges and opportunities of the energy transition. It underscored the importance of balancing three core objectives — energy security, economic growth, and environmental sustainability — a framework often referred to as the energy trilemma.
For countries like India, the report highlighted both the opportunity and responsibility to shape the global clean energy future through ambitious policies and investments in renewable technologies.