Recent reports and National Family health Surveys have signaled a monumental shift in Indian demographics. Highlighting this shift, Discuss the challenges that it will pose. Also, suggest remedial measures.

Recently released NFHS-5 report indicated a monumental shift in Indian demographics.

  • Population stabilization and TFR of below 2.0 achieved.
  • Share of young people in India’s demography has started to decline.
  • Even UNDESA highlighted that India is soon going to witness the phenomenon of ageing, & share of elderly will rise to around 20% by 2050.

Challenges posed by the shift:

  • Window to reap the benefits of demographic dividend has reduced. If human capital, health & education is not strengthened, it may turn into a demographic disaster.
  • India’s advantage of being a labour surplus nation is soon to fade.
  • May demand a structural strength in economy with less labour-intensive sectors. E.g., Shift from textile & leather to service sector.
  • Phenomenon of ageing: Rising elderly population & need for social security to them, Rising ratio of dependents in economy.
  • North-South divide may widen: Southern states like Kerala – much below TFR, Northern states like UP, Bihar – above TFR. It causes the issues like migration, etc.

Remedial measures:

  • Ageing:
    • Enhance social security net via universal insurance coverage.
    • Enhance geriatric healthcare facilities.
    • Enhance research & infrastructure on non-communicable diseases like diabetes, etc.
  • Demographic dividend narrowing:
    • Enhanced impetus to health care for all (Ayushman Bharat), education for all (NEP).
    • Invest in critical technologies like AI, Big data.
    • Impetus to higher education via schemes like USA.
  • Structural Shift – rationalize number of primary education institutes, focus on equality.

Thus, India’s demographic shifts need complimentary policy shift to reap benefits.

Originally written on January 22, 2023 and last modified on October 27, 2024.

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