India’s Fertility Decline
India’s demographic indicators have shown notable changes in 2023. The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and Total Fertility Rate (TFR) have declined. The population is ageing gradually. These shifts reflect evolving social and health dynamics across States and Union Territories (UTs). The latest Sample Registration Survey (SRS) Statistical Report for 2023 by the Office of the Registrar General of India provides detailed insights.
Decline in Crude Birth Rate and Fertility Rate
India’s CBR fell from 19.1 in 2022 to 18.4 per 1,000 people in 2023. The TFR dropped to 1.9, the first decline after two years of stability at 2.0. TFR indicates the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her reproductive years. A TFR below 2.1 is below the replacement level, meaning population growth may slow or reverse without migration.
Regional Variation in Fertility Rates
Northern States like Bihar (2.8), Uttar Pradesh (2.6), Madhya Pradesh (2.4), Rajasthan (2.3), and Chhattisgarh (2.2) have TFRs above replacement level. Southern and urbanised regions report lower TFRs. Delhi (1.2), Tamil Nadu (1.3), West Bengal (1.3), and Maharashtra (1.4) have some of the lowest fertility rates. Overall, 18 States and UTs have TFRs below replacement level.
Birth and Death Rates Trends
The Crude Death Rate (CDR) also declined to 6.4 in 2023 from 6.8 in 2022. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) improved to 25 deaths per 1,000 live births, a seven-point decline over five years. The sex ratio at birth (SRB) improved to 917 girls per 1,000 boys, yet remains below parity. Kerala and Chhattisgarh show the highest SRB, while Uttarakhand and Bihar report the lowest.
Ageing Population and Elderly Proportion
The elderly population (above 60 years) increased to 9.7% in 2023, up 0.7 percentage points from 2022. Kerala leads with 15% elderly population. States like Assam, Delhi, and Jharkhand report the lowest elderly proportions, around 7.6-7.7%. This rise signals a demographic transition with implications for healthcare and social services.
Data Releases and Reporting Delays
The Registrar General released the 2021 and 2022 Civil Registration System (CRS), Sample Registration System (SRS), and Medical Certification of Cause of Death (MCCD) reports after delays. The 2023 SRS data is public, but CRS and MCCD datasets for 2023 are yet to be published. These datasets are crucial for monitoring health and population trends.
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