AI-Based Monsoon Forecasting
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (MoAFW) has pioneered the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to provide early and accurate monsoon forecasts to farmers across India. Recently, nearly 3.8 crore farmers in 13 states received AI-based monsoon predictions via SMS through the m-Kisan platform. This advance warning, up to four weeks before rains, helps farmers make better decisions about crop selection, sowing time, and resource management. The initiative marks a global first in targeted AI weather forecasting aimed directly at improving agricultural outcomes.
AI Revolution in Weather Forecasting
Since 2022, AI has transformed weather prediction by improving accuracy and customising forecasts for specific user needs. Advanced models can now forecast complex phenomena such as the Indian monsoon weeks ahead. The Ministry’s forecasts combined Google’s Neural GCM and ECMWF’s Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Systems (AIFS). These models outperformed traditional forecasts in predicting local monsoon onset, enabling timely and reliable information for farmers.
Monsoon Forecast Dissemination to Farmers
The MoAFW sent weekly updates to farmers during the 2025 monsoon season, including alerts about a 20-day mid-season pause in rain progression. This early and continuous communication allowed farmers to adapt their plans and reduce risks. The messages were crafted in simple language and tested with farmer groups to ensure clarity and usefulness. This approach prioritises farmers’ needs and enhances their capacity to respond to changing weather patterns.
Impact on Kharif Farming and Livelihoods
Crores of Indian farmers depend on the Kharif crop cycle, which relies heavily on timely monsoon rains. Early AI forecasts give them critical lead time to decide what to plant and when. This reduces crop failure risks and improves income stability. With increasing climate variability, such tools are vital for agricultural resilience. The initiative supports sustainable farming and strengthens rural livelihoods by integrating technology with traditional practices.
Future Prospects
The Ministry plans to expand and improve the AI forecasting programme. Continuous refinement of models and communication methods will enhance accuracy and reach. The success of the 2025 monsoon forecast dissemination sets a precedent for integrating AI into agricultural policy. This initiative exemplifies how technology can empower millions of farmers and address climate challenges effectively.
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