2025 World Trade Report
The 2025 World Trade Report by the World Trade Organization (WTO) outlines how artificial intelligence (AI) could transform global trade and economic growth by 2040. It predicts a near 40 per cent rise in cross-border trade value driven by productivity gains and reduced trade costs. The report stresses the importance of policies that bridge digital divides and promote inclusive growth.
AI’s Potential to Boost Trade and GDP
AI can increase global trade by 34-37 per cent and boost global GDP by 12-13 per cent by 2040. These outcomes depend on how well different countries adopt AI and improve digital infrastructure. Low- and middle-income countries stand to gain if they narrow the digital gap with wealthier nations and embrace AI technologies.
Inclusive Growth Through AI and Trade
Trade in AI-enabling goods such as raw materials, semiconductors, and intermediate inputs is vital. In 2023, such trade was worth USD 2.3 trillion. Access to these goods supports AI adoption and economic growth. If developing economies reduce their digital infrastructure gap by half and adopt AI widely, incomes could rise by 14-15 per cent.
Challenges in Access and Trade Policies
Access to AI technologies remains uneven globally. Tariffs on AI-related goods can be as high as 45 per cent in some low-income countries. Quantitative restrictions on AI goods have increased sharply, from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024. These barriers hinder equitable AI adoption and trade expansion.
Role of Education and Workforce Skills
Investment in education and workforce training is essential to prevent widening inequality within countries. Labour market policies must adapt to support workers affected by AI-driven changes. Skill development ensures more people benefit from AI-enabled economic growth.
WTO’s Role in Facilitating Inclusive AI Trade
The WTO provides a platform for members to discuss AI-related trade issues. Since 2012, 80 trade concerns related to AI have been raised. The organisation promotes commitments under agreements like the Information Technology Agreement and the General Agreement on Trade in Services to make AI more accessible and affordable worldwide.
Need for Open and Predictable Trade Environment
Open trade policies are crucial for AI to drive inclusive growth. Predictability in trade rules encourages investment and innovation. The report calls for removing barriers that restrict AI goods and services to ensure that benefits reach all economies.
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