Pakistan–Afghanistan War, 2025

The Pakistan–Afghanistan War of 2025 is the armed confrontations and escalating hostilities between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, ruled by the Taliban, and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The conflict began in October 2025 following a series of explosions in Kabul and southeastern Afghanistan, which the Taliban government blamed on Pakistan. Islamabad denied responsibility but accused Kabul of harbouring Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants responsible for numerous attacks within Pakistani territory. The fighting marks one of the most serious escalations in relations between the two neighbouring countries since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.

Background

The roots of the 2025 conflict can be traced to the complex and often uneasy relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan following the Taliban takeover of Kabul in August 2021. Pakistan, long perceived as a key backer of the Taliban, expected the new regime to curtail militant activity along the border. However, Islamabad soon accused the Taliban of sheltering TTP fighters, a banned militant organisation ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban. The TTP, or Pakistan Taliban, has waged a violent insurgency against the Pakistani state since the mid-2000s, demanding the enforcement of a strict interpretation of Islamic law and opposing Islamabad’s alignment with Western powers. After 2021, the group re-emerged from its sanctuaries in eastern Afghanistan, leading to a surge in attacks on Pakistani security forces. Pakistani officials have reported over 500 TTP-linked incidents in 2025 alone, contributing to heightened tensions. According to data from the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), violence in 2024 claimed more than 2,500 lives, deadliest year in nearly a decade. In early 2025, Islamabad began pressing the Taliban government to rein in the TTP and expel its leadership from Afghan soil, but negotiations repeatedly failed.

Immediate Triggers

The war erupted following explosions in Kabul and Paktika province on 9 October 2025, which the Taliban alleged were caused by Pakistani air strikes targeting TTP leaders. Among those rumoured to be targeted was Noor Wali Mehsud, the TTP chief. While Afghan officials later said Mehsud survived, the Afghan Ministry of Defence directly accused Pakistan of violating Afghan sovereignty. Pakistan neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the explosions but asserted that Afghanistan was “being used as a base for operations against Pakistan” and that “necessary measures” would continue to protect its citizens. The Taliban condemned the attacks as “aggression,” vowing retaliation along the border. These incidents followed a surge in TTP attacks, including a deadly assault in September 2025 that killed 19 Pakistani soldiers in Orakzai.

Outbreak of Hostilities

On 11 October 2025, Taliban forces launched armed reprisals along several sectors of the Durand Line, including Kunar, Nangarhar, Khost, Paktia, and Helmand provinces. Taliban border units engaged Pakistani outposts with small arms, mortars, and heavy artillery, describing the action as a “response to air strikes.” Pakistani military officials confirmed the clashes, reporting that three Afghan quadcopters suspected of carrying explosives were shot down during the fighting. Pakistan retaliated with air and artillery strikes, targeting Taliban positions along the frontier, including a strike on a Taliban brigade in Spin Boldak. The intensity of the skirmishes prompted temporary closures of major border crossings such as Torkham and Chaman, disrupting trade and civilian movement. Clashes escalated over the weekend of October 11-13, with ground fighting, artillery exchanges, and reports of TTP militants attempting infiltration from Afghan soil. Independent sources reported that the clashes marked the heaviest fighting between the two sides since the fall of the previous Afghan republic in 2021. Both governments claimed to have inflicted significant casualties on the other, with reports indicating 12 Afghan civilians killed and over 100 injured from Pakistani fire, 15-20 Taliban fighters killed, and several Pakistani soldiers dead. Overall, dozens were killed and wounded in the clashes since October 11.

Regional and Diplomatic Context

The renewed conflict occurred amid shifting regional alignments. In a striking diplomatic development, the Taliban’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi arrived in India on 10 October 2025, marking the first high-level Taliban visit to New Delhi since their return to power. The visit was widely interpreted as part of Kabul’s effort to diversify its foreign relations and reduce reliance on Pakistan. Islamabad viewed the Taliban’s outreach to India with suspicion, fearing encirclement by hostile states. Pakistan has repeatedly accused India of supporting separatist and militant groups operating within Pakistani territory. The timing of the Kabul explosions—coinciding with Muttaqi’s visit—further deepened mistrust between Islamabad and Kabul. Prior ceasefire efforts included a brief halt on October 13 after appeals from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but fighting resumed shortly after.

Involvement of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan

The TTP remains central to the conflict. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project, the group carried out over 600 attacks against Pakistani security forces between 2024 and 2025. Pakistani intelligence claims that the TTP leadership resides in eastern Afghanistan, operating under the protection of sympathetic Taliban factions. Kabul has consistently denied these allegations, asserting that Afghan territory will not be used to threaten neighbouring countries. Analysts note, however, that the Taliban government’s limited control over certain border regions makes enforcement of these assurances difficult. Pakistan has labeled TTP militants as “Khawarij” or outlaws, blaming the Afghan Taliban for harboring them.

Military and Political Statements

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, reacting to a surge of attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in September 2025, warned Kabul to “choose one of two paths: genuine friendship or enmity.” His remarks followed a deadly TTP assault that killed 19 Pakistani soldiers in Orakzai. Defence Minister Khwaja Asif accused Afghanistan of enabling terrorism and declared that Pakistan “will not tolerate continued bloodshed.” On the Afghan side, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid condemned Pakistan’s alleged air raids as “cowardly acts violating Afghan sovereignty.” The Taliban Ministry of Defence vowed to “defend every inch of Afghan land.” Border commanders reported continuous clashes through 12 October, particularly near the Spin Boldak-Chaman crossing. Mutual accusations persist, with Pakistan claiming the Taliban spreads misinformation and shelters ISIS-linked groups, while the Taliban accuses Pakistan of initiating aggression.

Humanitarian and Economic Impact

The fighting has severely disrupted cross-border trade, halting movement of goods and people across one of South Asia’s busiest land routes. Thousands of civilians in frontier areas have fled their homes amid artillery exchanges, with shells hitting homes in Chaman and explosions reported in Kabul, possibly from an oil tanker strike. Pakistan’s ongoing campaign to repatriate Afghan refugees—nearly one million returned since late 2023—has further strained bilateral relations. In both countries, the conflict has deepened economic hardship. Pakistan faces inflation and security spending pressures, while Afghanistan, already grappling with international isolation and sanctions, risks further destabilisation of its fragile economy. The violence has displaced border residents and risks empowering extremist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda in the region.

International Response

The international community has expressed concern over the escalation. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) urged both sides to exercise restraint and reopen diplomatic channels. China, a regional stakeholder with close ties to both Islamabad and Kabul, has offered to mediate talks. The United States and European Union have also called for de-escalation, emphasising that renewed warfare could hinder counterterrorism cooperation and humanitarian aid. Neighbouring Iran and India have monitored developments closely. While Tehran has called for dialogue, Indian media sees these fightings as evidence of Pakistan’s failed policy of nurturing militant proxies.

Analysis and Implications

Security analysts describe the 2025 conflict as the culmination of years of strategic miscalculations. Pakistan’s earlier expectation of a compliant Taliban regime has given way to open hostility, while the Taliban’s assertion of independence has alienated one of its former patrons. Experts such as Tameem Bahiss, a Kabul-based researcher, argue that continued Pakistani strikes may backfire by fuelling anti-Pakistan sentiment within Afghanistan, potentially driving new recruits to the TTP. Others, including Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, suggest that Pakistan’s actions are intended to pressure the Taliban into curbing the TTP’s operations. The war has highlighted the fragility of South Asia’s post-2021 geopolitical order, with growing risks of regional instability involving India, China, and other powers. The strikes have targeted joint TTP-Al-Qaeda-Taliban bases, including a major hub in Spin Boldak with explosives storage, underscoring the intertwined militant networks.

Current Situation

As of 15 October 2025, Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban have declared a temporary 48-hour ceasefire, effective from approximately 5:30-6:00 PM Pakistan local time (around 12:30-13:00 GMT). The truce aims to enable talks on TTP activities, border security, and a peaceful resolution, following multiple failed ceasefire requests by the Taliban (four rejected by Pakistan, including via Qatar and Saudi channels) and a partial acceptance earlier for humanitarian body retrieval. Conflicting statements attribute the request: Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry claims it was at Afghanistan’s insistence, while Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid states it was at Pakistan’s request. Skirmishes along the border remain paused under the truce, though neither side has declared full-scale war. Pakistan continues to warn of operations against future incursions, and Afghan sources report concerns over potential post-ceasefire airstrikes. Diplomatic communications are minimal, with mediation efforts by China and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in preliminary stages.