India’s Fertiliser Demand Soars
India experienced an above-average southwest monsoon in 2025. Rainfall from June to August was 6.1% higher than the historical average. This favourable weather boosted kharif crop sowing and fertiliser consumption. However, supply constraints led to shortages of key fertilisers during the peak season.
Monsoon Performance and Agricultural Impact
The 2025 monsoon showed timely onset and good spatial distribution. June recorded 8.9% above-average rainfall, July 4.8%, and August 5.5%. May also saw unusually high precipitation at 106.4% of normal. Out of 36 meteorological regions, 33 received normal or above-normal rainfall. Only Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh had deficient rains. This helped farmers increase sowing area under rice by 7.6% and maize by 11.7% compared to 2024.
Fertiliser Demand Growth
Higher rainfall improved soil moisture and reservoir levels. This encouraged farmers to buy more fertilisers essential for crop growth. Sales of urea, single super phosphate (SSP), muriate of potash (MOP), and complex NPKS fertilisers rose sharply between April and July 2025. The only exception was diammonium phosphate (DAP), whose sales fell by 12.8%, continuing a multi-year trend due to supply shortages. Farmers substituted DAP with other phosphatic fertilisers like SSP and 20:20:0:13 blends.
Supply Constraints and Stock Depletion
Despite rising demand, domestic production of key fertilisers like urea and DAP stagnated or declined. Urea output fell from 102.1 lakh tonnes (lt) in April-July 2024 to 93.6 lt in the same period of 2025. DAP production remained flat at 13.7 lt. Imports of urea and DAP also dropped, partly due to Chinese supply restrictions. This mismatch caused sharp stock depletion. Urea stocks on 1 August 2025 were 37.2 lt, down from 86.4 lt the previous year. Similar declines occurred for DAP, NPK complexes, and MOP stocks.
Impact on Farmers and Crop Cycle
Phosphatic fertilisers like DAP are applied at sowing to aid root development. Nitrogen-rich urea is applied in split doses during crop growth. The shortage of these fertilisers led to long queues and panic buying among farmers. Increased sowing of high nitrogen-demanding crops like rice and maize intensified fertiliser consumption. Meanwhile, acreage under nitrogen-fixing crops like soybean and pulses declined, further raising nitrogen fertiliser demand.
Policy Considerations and Future Outlook
The government underestimated fertiliser demand during the 2025 kharif season. With reservoirs at 83.5% capacity and groundwater replenished, strong fertiliser demand is expected for the upcoming rabi season. Import restrictions from China have eased recently, which may improve supply. Experts suggest promoting fertiliser substitution to reduce urea and DAP dependence. Ammonium sulphate can replace some urea while supplying sulphur. Restricting DAP use to staple crops and encouraging complex fertilisers for others could optimise nutrient use and ease shortages.
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