LANCET Modelling Study on Paris Climate Agreement

The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change has published its new research in Lancet Planetary Health Journal recently. The report has highlighted the benefits of adoption of the Paris Agreement to health.

Highlights

  • It highlights that the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are in consistent with the Paris Agreement.
  • The Paris Agreement aims to limit the warming to below 2°C.
  • The report also focuses on the crucial and overlooked incentive to tackle the climate change.
  • The study was carried in countries that represent 50 per cent of the world’s population namely, China, Germany, Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Nigeria, United Kingdom and United States. These countries also account for 70 per cent of the world’s emissions.

Key findings of the report

  • The signatories of the Paris agreement are updating and revising their NDCs in the backdrop of COP26 of 2021.
  • However, the NDCs are not that strong globally to achieve the Paris agreement. Thus, there is a risk of global temperature rise more than 3°C.
  • The report further highlights that the adoption of the policies which are in consistent with the aim of the Paris Agreement and with the prioritisation of the health can help in saving around,
  1. 4 million lives as a result of better diet
  2. 6 million lives as a result of cleaner air, and
  3. 1 million lives as a result of increased exercise.
  • The report mentioned that, though the direct benefits of the carbon mitigation are in long-term but the health co-benefits of the climate policies have the immediate positive benefits.
  • It says, If India follow the commitments of the Paris agreement, then it can save 4.3 lakh lives as a result of cleaner air and 17.41 lakh lives as a result of better diet.

Thus, the health benefits of the strengthened Nationally Determined Contributions commitments can be achieved by the direct climate change mitigation along with the supporting actions. Both of the measures together can help in reducing the exposure to harmful pollutants. It would also help in improving the diets and enabling a safer physical activity. There are countries who have benefitted from dietary improvements. For instance, in Germany 188 deaths were avoided per 100,000 of population; In USA 171 per 100,000 deaths were avoided while in China 167 per 100,000 deaths were avoided; report highlights.

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