Cross-Strait Relations

Cross-Strait relations refer to the political, economic, military, and cultural interactions between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland and the Republic of China (ROC) on the island of Taiwan, separated by the Taiwan Strait. These relations are among the most complex and sensitive geopolitical issues in East Asia, shaped by history, identity, ideology, and global strategic interests.

Historical Background

• Chinese Civil War (1927–1949): After years of conflict between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Kuomintang (KMT), the CCP established the PRC in 1949. The KMT retreated to Taiwan, maintaining the ROC government.
• Two Chinas: Both governments claimed to be the legitimate authority of all China. The PRC never recognised the ROC as independent, while the ROC held onto its claim of sovereignty over the mainland for decades.
• International Recognition: In 1971, the PRC replaced the ROC at the United Nations, gaining broader recognition as the sole representative of China. Since then, most countries have shifted diplomatic recognition to Beijing, though Taiwan maintains unofficial ties worldwide.

Political Relations

Cross-Strait relations are marked by competing positions:

• PRC Stance: The PRC considers Taiwan a breakaway province and insists on eventual “reunification,” using the “One China” principle as the foundation for all diplomatic and cross-Strait engagement.
• ROC/Taiwan Position: Taiwan has evolved into a vibrant democracy. Public opinion is divided between maintaining the status quo, pursuing formal independence, or eventual reunification, with most favouring the current de facto independence without a formal declaration.
• One Country, Two Systems Proposal: The PRC has offered this model, used in Hong Kong, but it has been largely rejected in Taiwan due to distrust and concerns over erosion of democracy.

Military Dimension

• PRC Military Posture: China has not renounced the use of force to achieve reunification and maintains significant military deployments facing Taiwan. Military exercises, missile tests, and naval patrols are used to pressure Taipei.
• Taiwan’s Defence: Taiwan maintains its own armed forces and receives security support, including arms sales, primarily from the United States under the Taiwan Relations Act (1979).
• U.S. Policy: The U.S. follows a policy of strategic ambiguity, not explicitly committing to defend Taiwan but maintaining deterrence against unilateral changes to the status quo.

Economic and Trade Relations

Despite political tensions, economic interactions between the two sides are extensive:

• Trade: The PRC is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, with billions in goods, investment, and manufacturing supply chains flowing across the strait.
• Investment: Taiwanese firms, especially in electronics and manufacturing, have invested heavily in mainland China since the 1990s.
• Agreements: The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed in 2010 improved trade ties, though future agreements face political obstacles.

Cultural and Social Exchanges

• Tourism: Travel and tourism between Taiwan and mainland China have been significant, though often affected by political tensions.
• Education: Student exchanges and academic collaborations have increased since the early 2000s.
• Identity: A growing number of Taiwanese identify themselves as “Taiwanese” rather than “Chinese,” reflecting generational change and strengthening a separate national identity.

Key Phases in Relations

1. 1949–1978: Hostile confrontation with limited contact, marked by military standoffs.
2. 1979–1990s: Beginning of indirect dialogue and limited economic exchanges.
3. 1990s–2008: Growing economic integration but political disputes, including the 1995–96 Taiwan Strait Crisis.
4. 2008–2016: Improved ties under President Ma Ying-jeou, with expanded trade, tourism, and direct flights.
5. 2016–Present: Relations worsened under President Tsai Ing-wen, who rejected the “1992 Consensus,” leading to increased PRC pressure and reduced official dialogue.

International Dimension

• Diplomatic Recognition: Only a small number of countries recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state, while most adhere to the “One China” policy.
• Strategic Competition: Cross-Strait relations are tied to U.S.–China rivalry, with Taiwan a flashpoint in Indo-Pacific security.
• Alliances: Japan, Australia, and European nations increasingly voice concern over stability in the Taiwan Strait, given its importance to global trade.

Current Challenges

• Military Escalation: Rising Chinese military activity around Taiwan raises fears of conflict.
• Economic Dependence: Taiwan faces the dilemma of economic reliance on China while resisting political pressure.
• Diplomatic Isolation: Taiwan’s limited recognition restricts its participation in international organisations.
• Public Opinion: Taiwan’s democratic society is increasingly resistant to Beijing’s unification narrative.