Accelerated Rainfall Changes in India Demand New Climate Models
Recent studies reveal that rainfall changes in India expected by 2040 are already occurring. This shows accelerated global warming is impacting monsoon patterns sooner than predicted. The frequency of extreme rainfall events is rising sharply. Current climate models lag behind these rapid changes. Scientists call for urgent updates to climate models to better predict and manage future risks.
Current Trends in Rainfall Extremes
Data from 1951 to 2022 show a clear increase in extreme rainfall events across India. The number of daily rainfall events exceeding 100 mm has risen in recent years. June 2025 recorded a record 502 very heavy rainfall events above 115.6 mm, the highest in recent decades. This surpasses the 494 events recorded in 2023. These numbers reflect a trend of intensifying monsoon rainfall and more frequent floods, flash floods, and landslides.
Climate Model Projections Versus Reality
The latest CMIP6 models projected increases in extreme rainfall mostly for the latter half of the 21st century. However, the worst-case scenario, SSP 5-8.5, predicted a rise starting around 2027. Observations now show this increase has already begun. This mismatch suggests existing models underestimate the speed and scale of climate change impacts in India.
Influence of Oceanic Phenomena on Rainfall
Natural phenomena like El Niño and La Niña affect rainfall extremes but their interactions with global warming are complex. For example, June 2021 had the lowest extreme rainfall events during a La Niña, which typically increases rainfall. Conversely, June 2023, an El Niño year, showed the second highest extreme rainfall. These contradictions indicate evolving climate dynamics that challenge current understanding.
Acceleration of Global Warming
Since 2010, global warming has accelerated by over 50% compared to 1970-2010 rates. Temperature spikes of 0.4°C in recent years cannot be fully explained by known factors like El Niño or aerosol reductions. Scientists warn about ‘point of no return’ scenarios such as the potential shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This could trigger widespread and unpredictable climate disruptions globally.
Need for New Approaches
Experts advocate for climate models based on continuous real-time observations and insights from paleoclimate data. More detailed monitoring of polar ice changes and oceanic systems is crucial. Such models would better capture rapid warming trends and extreme weather events. This approach contrasts with traditional models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
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