Rising Temperatures and Mortality Trends in India

May 3, 2025

Recent studies reveal alarming trends in mortality linked to extreme temperatures in India. Over the past two decades, nearly 35,000 deaths have been attributed to heat and cold exposure. This data marks the urgent need for targeted policies to mitigate these risks. The research indicates that heatstroke is a more cause of death than cold exposure, particularly affecting men.

The Study

The study analysed national temperature data from the India Meteorological Department and mortality figures from the National Crime Records Bureau. It focused on trends from 2001 to 2019, with state-level data from 24 states between 2001 and 2014. The findings showed a rise in both summer and winter maximum temperatures, correlating with increased deaths.

Heat and Cold-Related Deaths

The study recorded 19,693 deaths from heatstroke and 15,197 from cold exposure. The year 2015 was particularly deadly, with severe heatwaves and cold spells leading to 1,907 and 1,147 deaths, respectively. Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Odisha, and West Bengal had the highest heatstroke-related deaths, while Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Bihar, Haryana, and Jharkhand were most affected by cold exposure.

Gender Disparities in Mortality

The analysis revealed stark gender disparities. Between 2001 and 2019, men were three to five times more likely to die from heatstroke and four to seven times more likely to die from cold exposure than women. Working-age men, particularly those aged 30 to 59, were especially vulnerable. This may be due to their higher likelihood of outdoor work.

Implications for Policy and Response

The study puts stress on the need for state-focused strategies to reduce preventable mortality. Researchers advocate for the suspension of outdoor work during extreme heat events. They emphasise the importance of understanding population-level effects to draft comprehensive response plans. Current death registration practices may also obscure the true scale of the issue.

Research Gaps and Future Directions

While this study marks higher male mortality, previous research has produced mixed findings on gender vulnerability. Future studies should explore indoor heat exposure, particularly for women who spend more time indoors. Researchers aim to investigate disease pathways and co-morbid conditions linked to temperature extremes. This data will aid in developing better adaptation and mitigation strategies.

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