Indus Water Treaty

The Indus Water Treaty (1960) is the most enduring treaty between India and Pakistan, surviving all wars and remaining intact even during the most challenging periods of bilateral relations. It is cited as a global model for cooperation on the use of trans-boundary river waters. The success of the Treaty also lends weight to the theory that when it comes to water, nations tend to cooperate rather than engage in conflict.

Background

After partition, the use of the waters of the Indus and its tributaries became a major dispute between India and Pakistan. The irrigation canals of the Sutlej valley and the Bari Doab were split – with the canals lying primarily in Pakistan and the headwork dams in India, disrupting supply in some parts of Pakistan. The concern over India building large dams over various Punjab Rivers that could undercut the supply flowing to Pakistan, as well as the possibility that India could divert rivers during war, caused political consternation in Pakistan. This led to negotiations and the signing of the Indus Water Treaty in 1960.

Provisions of Indus Water Treaty

The treaty, brokered by the World Bank after a decade of negotiations, includes the following provisions:

• It classified the six rivers of the Indus River System into Eastern and Western rivers. The Eastern rivers include Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi; while Western rivers include Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus. Indus and Sutlej originate in China, while the other four rise in India. All enter Pakistan from India.
• India was given full rights over the Eastern rivers, while India had to let the Western rivers’ water flow unrestricted to Pakistan.
• India could use the waters of Western rivers in a non-consumptive manner for domestic purposes, including irrigation and hydropower production, as specified in the treaty.
• For Eastern rivers, India could use the water as it pleased.

The treaty established a Permanent Indus Commission to implement its provisions. Both India and Pakistan have an Indus Commissioner who meet regularly, exchange information and data, and settle minor disputes. So far, around 110 rounds of meetings of the Indus Commission have occurred, and these meetings have never been suspended.

Uri Attack and Clamour for Abrogation of Indus Water Treaty

In the aftermath of the Uri Attack in 2016, there was a clamor in India to abrogate the 56-year-old treaty. The argument was that, as a non-military option, India could stop the flow of waters to Pakistan to bring it to its knees. Approximately 65% of Pakistan’s geographical area, including its entire Punjab province, is part of the Indus basin. Pakistan has developed the world’s largest canal system in this basin. The water of the Indus rivers is a source of irrigation, hydropower, and drinking water for millions of Pakistanis. If the water from rivers is stopped, it could severely impact Pakistan. This argument is not new and has been raised repeatedly, considered an easy and effective option with no presumed collateral damage.

What Can Be Implications of Abrogation / Renegotiation of the Treaty?

The terms “abrogation” and “renegotiation” have different implications. Abrogation is suggested as a way for India to pressure Pakistan. Pakistan, domestically, raises concerns about India stealing its water and has voices calling for “renegotiation” of the treaty. However, practically, neither India can abrogate the treaty nor Pakistan can demand renegotiation. The treaty is generous to Pakistan, and renegotiation would risk a less favorable outcome. Abrogation by India carries a short-term risk of war (Pakistan may declare it an act of war) and long-term impacts, such as flooding in Indian cities due to excess water. Furthermore, Pakistan’s interest in Kashmir is partly driven by the desire to control rivers.

It is worth noting that India has never fully utilized the Western rivers. Even using the water as specified in the treaty could significantly impact Pakistan.

Recent Developments (2023–2025)

In recent years, tensions surrounding the Indus Water Treaty have persisted, driven by ongoing disputes over hydropower projects and differing interpretations of the treaty’s provisions. Key updates include:

• Kishenganga and Ratle Hydropower Projects: India’s construction of the Kishenganga (330 MW) and Ratle (850 MW) hydropower projects on the Western rivers has been a point of contention. Pakistan has repeatedly raised objections, claiming these projects violate the treaty by affecting water flow. In 2023, Pakistan sought arbitration through a Neutral Expert and the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), but India maintained that the projects comply with the treaty’s provisions for non-consumptive use. The World Bank, a signatory to the treaty, has urged both nations to resolve disputes through the Permanent Indus Commission, but parallel proceedings have complicated matters.
• India’s Notice to Modify the Treaty (2023): In January 2023, India issued a formal notice to Pakistan, calling for a review and modification of the treaty under Article XII(3). India cited Pakistan’s “intransigence” in resolving disputes and the need to update the treaty to address modern challenges, such as climate change and increased water demand. Pakistan responded by emphasizing the treaty’s enduring success and rejecting calls for modification, fearing it could lead to less favorable terms.
• Pahalgam Terror Attack and Treaty Suspension (2025): The April 22, 2025, terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 people, mostly tourists, marked a significant escalation. India accused Pakistan of supporting the attack, linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, and responded with a series of diplomatic and economic measures. On April 23, 2025, India announced the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, a historic move ending a 64-year-old agreement that had survived multiple conflicts. The government stated that water previously flowing to Pakistan would now be used domestically, with plans to enhance infrastructure like the Baglihar and Salal Hydroelectric Projects on the Chenab River.
• Pakistan condemned the suspension, warning of severe consequences for its agriculture and hydropower, as 80% of its farmland and major cities like Karachi and Lahore depend on the Indus system. The move has raised fears of heightened tensions, with Pakistan’s leadership threatening a military response if water flows are disrupted.
• Continued Commission Meetings: Despite tensions, the Permanent Indus Commission has continued to function. The 118th meeting was held in May 2024 in New Delhi, where both sides exchanged data and discussed ongoing concerns. While minor disputes were addressed, major issues like the hydropower projects remained unresolved.
• Climate Change and Water Stress: Both nations are increasingly facing water scarcity due to climate change, erratic monsoons, and glacial retreat in the Himalayas, which feed the Indus system. This has heightened the strategic importance of the treaty. Experts argue that cooperation under the treaty could serve as a model for addressing climate-induced water challenges, but political mistrust continues to hinder progress.
• Domestic Pressures: In India, calls to leverage the treaty as a strategic tool against Pakistan have resurfaced periodically, particularly after cross-border incidents. However, analysts note that abrogating the treaty would require significant infrastructure to store or divert Western river waters, which India currently lacks. In Pakistan, public narratives about India “stealing” water continue to fuel distrust, despite the treaty’s mechanisms for transparency.

The Indus Water Treaty remains a cornerstone of India-Pakistan relations, but its future hinges on both nations’ ability to navigate disputes through dialogue and adapt to emerging environmental challenges. While the treaty has proven resilient, ongoing disagreements over hydropower and calls for modification underscore the need for renewed cooperation to ensure its continued success.