India’s Total Fertility Rate Trends
The Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report of 2021 has revealed that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) remains stable at 2.0, which is below the replacement level of 2.1. However, regional variations are stark. Bihar reports the highest TFR at 3.0, while West Bengal and Delhi have the lowest at 1.4. This report marks ongoing demographic trends and challenges across different states.
About Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Total Fertility Rate is a demographic measure. It estimates the average number of children a woman will have during her reproductive years, typically aged 15 to 49. The TFR is derived from age-specific fertility rates, which assess the number of children born to women in specific age groups. The SRS survey is the largest demographic study in India, involving about 84 lakh individuals across various states and Union Territories.
Fertility Indicators in the SRS Report
The SRS report includes several fertility indicators. These include the Crude Birth Rate (CBR), General Fertility Rate, Age-Specific Fertility Rate, and Gross Reproduction Rate. The CBR measures live births per 1,000 people, while the General Fertility Rate focuses on births per 1,000 women of reproductive age. The report indicates that India’s CBR is 19.3 for 2021, reflecting a consistent decline of 1.12% annually since 2016.
Regional Variations in TFR
India’s TFR shows considerable regional disparity. Six states, including Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, exceed the replacement level. In contrast, states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu report TFRs well below this threshold. The variations are attributed to socio-economic factors, including education and healthcare access. States with higher TFRs often face challenges in human development policies, while those with lower TFRs encounter different issues such as changing family structures and lifestyle choices.
Implications of Declining TFR
The decline in TFR has implications for population dynamics. States with TFR below replacement levels may face challenges related to an ageing population and workforce shortages. Conversely, states with high TFRs may experience strains on resources and infrastructure due to rapid population growth. Policymakers need to address these unique challenges. Tailored approaches are essential for states to balance population growth and sustainable development.
Expert Analysis of Fertility Trends
The data indicates a need for targeted human development policies in states with high TFRs. The socio-economic progress in southern states correlates with lower TFR. However, states with declining fertility rates, such as Sikkim, face their own challenges, including a lack of desire for larger families. Factors like opportunity costs and caregiving stresses influence these trends.
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