Global EV Outlook 2025
In 2024, China emerged as the leading exporter of electric vehicles (EVs), commanding a 40% share of global exports. The Global EV Outlook 2025 report marks how affordable Chinese models have influenced the electric car market, particularly in emerging economies. Countries such as Thailand, Brazil, and Mexico saw a remarkable increase in the adoption of Chinese electric cars. However, recent tariff changes pose challenges to this growth.
Chinese Electric Vehicles in Emerging Markets
Chinese electric cars are priced competitively in several emerging markets. In countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Mexico, the cost of the cheapest battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is comparable to that of the least expensive internal combustion engine (ICE) models. This pricing strategy has catalysed a surge in EV adoption. In Thailand, for instance, the average price of a Chinese EV was lower than that of conventional vehicles in 2024.
Market Shares and Trends
In Brazil, Chinese imports accounted for 85% of the country’s EV sales by 2024, rise from 60% in 2023. The price gap between BEVs and ICE vehicles in Brazil shrank dramatically, from over 100% to 25%. Conversely, in India, high import duties and the availability of local models limited Chinese EVs to less than 15% of the market share.
Impact of Tariffs on Exports
The introduction of new tariffs in various regions is complicating the landscape for Chinese EV exports. In 2024, the European Union implemented OEM-specific countervailing duties aimed at counteracting alleged subsidies for Chinese manufacturers. The United States and Canada followed suit with tariffs exceeding 100%. These measures have prompted Chinese manufacturers to consider establishing overseas production facilities to mitigate the impact of tariffs.
Future Manufacturing Strategies
Chinese OEMs are planning to expand their manufacturing capabilities abroad. This includes establishing assembly plants in Brazil and Türkiye, aimed at serving local markets and facilitating exports. By 2026, the overseas manufacturing capacity of Chinese OEMs is projected to nearly double, reaching over 4.3 million vehicles annually. Europe and Southeast Asia are expected to be key locations for these new plants.
Challenges Ahead
The report warns that rising trade policies and tariffs could hinder the growth of EV sales in various markets. Tariffs may particularly affect EV batteries and their components, which are traded extensively worldwide. A global shift towards higher tariffs could lead to increased battery prices, counteracting the price declines observed since 2015.
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