Trends in Demographic Transition in India

Following are the four stage trends in demographic transition in India.

First Stage

In India, the first stage of demographic transition was witnessed till 1920 when both the birth and death rates were very high.

Second Stage

The first stage of demographic transition was witnessed from the early 1920s and extended till early 1970s. During this period, India witnessed decline in death rates. The decline was possible since the major causes of mortality such as the famines and epidemics were brought under control. However, the decline in death rates increased the population growth rates of the country, especially between 1921 and 1951.

Third Stage

India is witnessing the third stage of demographic transition from 1971.  During the 1970s, the country witnessed a decline in death rate which was almost the same as the decline in birth rate, leading to a plateau in population growth in 1960s and 1970s.

During the 1980s and 1990s, there was a faster decline in birth rate than death rate which is still continuing to the present times.

Fourth Stage

The Office of the Registrar General of India has predicted that India is set to enter the fourth stage of demographic transition by around 2026. The Registrar General have also released the expected dates when the major States are expected to achieve Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1. The goal of TFR of 2.1 has been already achieved by Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and West Bengal. But the states like Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand are expected to achieve total fertility rate of 2.1 only around 2030.

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