Climate Physical Risks
India faces climate crisis. Rising temperatures and erratic monsoons threaten its population and economy. The World Bank reports that over 80% of India’s districts are at risk from climate-induced disasters. These challenges include severe floods in the north-east and heat-induced crop failures in central regions. The urgency for effective climate risk assessment and adaptation strategies has never been greater.
About Climate Physical Risks (CPRs)
Climate Physical Risks encompass both acute shocks and chronic stresses. Acute shocks include floods and heatwaves. Chronic stresses involve shifting monsoon patterns and prolonged droughts. These risks affect economic stability and public health. It is crucial to distinguish between short-term weather forecasts and long-term climate projections. The latter enables policymakers to prepare for evolving climate hazards.
Mitigation vs. Adaptation
Global climate action is often split between mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation focuses on reducing emissions, while adaptation prepares for inevitable climate impacts. Although adaptation has been a priority for developing nations, recent climate events have brought into light its importance for developed nations as well. Investment in adaptation is economically beneficial. The UN Environment Programme estimates a return of $4 for every $1 spent on adaptation.
Framework for Assessing Climate Risks
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a framework for understanding CPRs. The expected value of climate risks is determined by hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Hazards include floods and cyclones. Exposure refers to who and what is at risk. Vulnerability indicates a system’s capacity to withstand and recover. These elements collectively define climate risk.
Regulatory Shifts in Climate Risk Disclosure
Regulatory bodies worldwide are moving towards mandatory climate risk disclosures. In India, the Reserve Bank is integrating climate risks into its regulatory framework. The International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) ISSB S2 sets global standards for reporting CPRs. This shift indicates that assessing climate risks is now essential for business continuity.
Current Gaps in India’s Climate Risk Assessment
India’s approach to assessing climate risks is fragmented. Various government agencies and research institutions use different methodologies. While there are valuable studies, such as flood maps and vulnerability atlases, a unified system is lacking. Reliable projections are hindered by limitations in global climate models. Without centralised data, informed decision-making becomes challenging.
Steps Towards Improved Adaptation Planning
India has begun addressing these gaps through its National Adaptation Plan (NAP). This plan aligns with the Paris Agreement’s Article 7. The first report was submitted in 2023, with a more comprehensive report in progress. The NAP aims to cover nine thematic sectors at the district level. However, further steps are needed to develop a robust CPR assessment tool. This tool would aid both public and private sectors in making informed decisions.
Future Directions for Climate Risk Assessment
A specific tool for India is essential. It should combine localised climate modelling with a centralised climate risk data hub. This would facilitate transparent, science-based methods for risk assessment. A comprehensive approach will ensure that India’s development is not only rapid but also resilient to climate challenges.
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