2025 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
Recent data from the 2025 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook marks a major shift in global cereal consumption. By 2034, only 40 per cent of cereals will be used directly for human food. Meanwhile, biofuel and industrial uses will rise sharply to 27 per cent. Animal feed will account for 33 per cent of cereal use. This change reflects growing demand for bioenergy and increased competition among food, feed and fuel sectors.
Rising Biofuel Demand and Its Drivers
Biofuel consumption is expected to grow at 0.9 per cent annually until 2034, up from earlier estimates of 0.6 per cent. Emerging economies such as India, Brazil and Indonesia will lead this growth. Despite concerns about sustainability, biofuel production will mainly depend on food-based cereals rather than advanced cellulosic feedstocks. These alternatives remain a small part of the biofuel mix due to technological and economic barriers.
Slowing Expansion of Farmland and Yield Improvements
Global cereal production will increase by 1.1 per cent per year, driven mainly by a 0.9 per cent rise in yields. The expansion of harvested land will slow to 0.14 per cent annually, less than half the rate of the previous decade. India and Southeast Asia will contribute 39 per cent of the increase in cereal consumption, while China’s share will decline from 32 to 13 per cent, reflecting changing dietary patterns.
Growth in Animal-Based Food Demand
Demand for meat, dairy and eggs will rise by 17 per cent by 2034. This is largely due to income growth in middle-income countries, which shifts diets towards higher protein intake. Livestock inventories are expected to grow by 7 per cent globally. Per capita calorie intake from animal and fish products will increase by 6 per cent worldwide, with a notable 24 per cent rise in lower-middle-income nations. However, low-income countries will still face nutritional deficits.
Environmental Impact and Emission Trends
The expansion of animal farming and cropland will increase direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 6 per cent. However, improvements in farming practices will reduce the carbon intensity of these emissions. This means emissions per unit of production will decline even as total output grows, denoting progress in sustainable agriculture despite rising environmental pressures.
Regional Shifts in Cereal Consumption
India and Southeast Asia will become key drivers of global cereal demand, reflecting population growth and dietary changes. Conversely, China’s reduced share signals a shift towards less cereal-intensive diets. These regional trends will influence global agricultural markets and trade flows over the next decade.
| Related | |
|---|---|
