INCOIS Identifies Cyclone Formation and Intensification Factors
Recent advancements in cyclone research have emerged from the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information and Services (INCOIS). Scientists have successfully quantified the oceanic and atmospheric factors influencing cyclone formation and intensification. This research is crucial for enhancing cyclone prediction and improving contingency planning for coastal regions in India.
Cyclone Threats to Indian Coasts
The Indian coastline is particularly vulnerable to cyclones during two main periods – April-May and October-December. May and November typically see the most intense storms. Historically, three out of four cyclones develop in the Bay of Bengal. However, the Arabian Sea has also witnessed severe storms in recent years. These cyclones often exhibit rapid intensification, complicating predictions.
Case Study – Cyclone Tauktae
Cyclone Tauktae, which formed in May 2021, serves as a very important case study. It intensified into an ‘extremely severe’ cyclone, with wind speeds reaching 160-220 km/h. Tauktae became the deadliest storm in the Arabian Sea from 2012 to 2023. Its impact included the tragic capsizing of Barge P305, resulting in numerous fatalities. The cyclone approached within 140 km of India’s west coast before making landfall in Gujarat.
Key Factors in Cyclone Intensification
The INCOIS study identified various atmospheric and oceanic factors influencing cyclone development. For Cyclone Tauktae, atmospheric conditions contributed slightly more to intensification than oceanic conditions, with a 54% to 46% ratio. This quantification is a first in cyclone research. Key factors include mid-atmospheric humidity, low-level absolute vorticity, vertical wind shear, and tropical cyclone heat potential.
Methodology and Findings
The researchers developed a novel methodology to assess cyclone factors. They observed that prior to Tauktae’s development, humidity, ocean heat potential, moisture, and land temperatures were all above normal. This indicated the likelihood of intensified cyclone activity. The methodology was validated against other cyclones like Ockhi, Amphan, and Mocha, each exhibiting unique characteristics.
Future Implications for Prediction Tools
The INCOIS team is currently developing a tool to integrate these findings into forecasting systems. This tool aims to assist organisations like the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in improving cyclone predictions. The methodology can be applied globally, enhancing cyclone forecasting across various ocean basins.
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