Monsoon To Be Near Normal As Predicted By IMD

The first stage forecast for the South West Monsoon seasonal rainfall (June-September) has been issued by the Indian Metrological Department (IMD). The rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 5% along with that Weak El Ni conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season.

What is Long Period Average

  • LPA is the average rainfall received by the country as a whole during the south-west monsoon for a 50-year period.
  • The current LPA is 89 cm based on the average rainfall over years 1951 and 2000.
  • It acts as a benchmark against which the rainfall in any monsoon season is measured.
  • The country is said to have received deficient rainfall if the actual rainfall falls below 90 per cent of LPA similarly the country is said to have received excess rainfall if the rainfall is greater than 110 per cent of LPA.

About Indian Metrological Department (IMD)

The ancient traces of Metrology are available in Brihatsamhita where a clear evidence of deep knowledge of atmospheric process is present.

  • It is under Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India. It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology.
  • It’s headquartered in Delhi and operates hundreds of observation stations across India and Antarctica.
  • IMD is also one of the six Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres of the World Meteorological Organization. It has the responsibility for forecasting, naming and distribution of warnings for tropical cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean region, including the Malacca Straits, the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf.
  • The first meteorological observatories were established in India by the British East India Company which included the Calcutta Observatory in 1785, the Madras Observatory in 1796 and the Colaba Observatory in 1826.
  • India Meteorology Department (IMD) was established in 1875.

IMD has forecasted well distributed rainfall which will be beneficial to farmers in the ensuing Kharif season.

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