Monsoon likely to be delayed

The India Meteorological Department s (IMD) monsoon onset forecast has predicted a likely delay in the onset of the Monsoon. The onset expected in Kerala is on June 6 instead of June 1.

Why the delay?

  • The delay is attributed to the presence of a strong mid-latitude regime which is preventing the otherwise smooth entry of the monsoon currents from over the Bay of Bengal.
  • The monsoon currents are oppressed by the prevailing mid-latitude regime. As a result, the currents may take longer to establish over the mainland.
  • In addition, the continuous flow of strong western disturbances is also making it difficult for the presently weak monsoon currents to penetrate.

If realised, it will be for the first time since 2013 the Southwest monsoon will make a delayed onset over the Indian mainland.

Further, the overall amount of rainfall that India gets during the monsoon season, and the regional distribution of rainfall is not influenced by the date of the onset of monsoon.