ICRA revises FY22 GDP Growth Forecast to 9%

Ratings agency ICRA has revised its real GDP growth forecast for India on September 27, 2021 for Financial Year 2022 (FY22). Its GDP forecast has changed from 8.5% to 9 per cent.

Highlights

  • ICRA credited the upward revision in the GDP to the brightening prospects for second quarter of FY22 which is expected to benefit as a result of rapid Covid-19 vaccine administration, healthy advance estimates of kharif output as well as easing of cash management measures related to the spending of Central government.
  • Forecast for the GVA growth in agriculture, forestry & fishing have been revised to 3 per cent (from 2 percent) in Q2 & Q3 of FY2022.

Impact of vaccination

According to ICRA, widening coverage of Covid-19 vaccines will boost confidence, which, in turn, will re-energise the demand for contact-intensive services. It will help in reviving the portions of economy affected most by covid-19 pandemic. As per ICRA’s estimated, nearly three-fourths of Indian adults will receive their second Covid-19 vaccine by the end of 2021.

Kharif Output

As per ICRA, robust kharif harvest will sustain the consumption demand from the farm sector. Late sowing helped in bringing kharif acreage nearly at par with the record area of 2021.

National Monetisation Pipeline

Upturn in the direct tax revenues and commencement of inflows from the ‘National Monetisation Pipeline’ have also improved the revenue visibility for the Central government. This has contributed towards the withdrawal of extant cash management guidelines, which should accelerate the Central Government’ spending in H2 FY2022.

ICRA Limited (ICRA)

This Indian independent investment information and credit rating agency was established in 1991. Its original name was Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited (IICRA India). It was a joint-venture of Moody’s and several Indian commercial banks & financial services companies.

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