Climate Change Threatens Global Crop Yields Severely
Recent studies reveal alarming impacts of climate change on global agriculture. Rising temperatures are expected to reduce yields of major staple crops drastically by 2100. Despite farmers adapting their practices, these changes will not fully offset losses. Northern India’s wheat-growing regions face some of the worst declines worldwide. This poses serious risks to food security globally.
Global Crop Yield Projections
The study analysed six staple crops – rice, wheat, maize, soybean, sorghum and cassava. These crops provide two-thirds of the world’s calories. Under a high-emissions scenario, yields could decline by 41% in wealthy regions and 28% in poorer regions by century’s end. Wheat is projected to suffer the most severe losses, especially in northern and central India, with potential yield drops up to 100%. Rice yields may increase in some areas due to its tolerance to high night temperatures.
Regional Variations and Economic Impact
Losses vary widely by region and crop. Wheat losses of 30-40% are expected in China, Russia, the US and Canada. Eastern and Western Europe, Africa and South America may see 15-25% reductions. Subsistence farmers relying on cassava also face sharp declines. Richer regions, which include major breadbaskets, will experience amplified effects. Poorer regions in hotter climates may be somewhat less affected due to existing heat adaptations.
Limits of Adaptation and Development
Farmers’ adaptive measures can reduce yield losses but only partially. Adaptation may offset about one-third of losses by 2100 under high emissions. Rice shows the greatest benefit from adaptation, while wheat benefits the least. Rising incomes sometimes increase risk-taking among wheat producers, worsening losses. Adaptation reduces calorie losses by 23% in 2050 and 34% by 2100 under high emissions, but gains are smaller under moderate emissions.
Climate Risks to Food Security
Each additional degree Celsius rise in global surface temperature is linked to a 4.4% decline in daily calorie availability per person. This equates to 120 fewer calories consumed daily worldwide. The disruption threatens food systems globally, especially in key agricultural zones. The unequal impact on regions and income groups raises concerns about future hunger and malnutrition risks. Food security policies must consider these complex regional and crop-specific vulnerabilities.
Scientific and Policy Implications
The findings come from a large-scale global analysis covering over 24,000 regions in 54 countries. The study emphasises the urgent need to reduce emissions to avoid worst-case scenarios. It also marks the importance of investing in adaptive technologies and resilient agricultural practices. Policymakers must address both climate mitigation and adaptation to safeguard global food supplies.
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