IMD to use supercomputer to forecast monsoon based on dynamical model

The Union Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has announced that India Meteorological Department (IMD) will use supercomputer to forecast India’s annual summer monsoon.
The forecast made by a supercomputer will be based on a dynamical monsoon model and will be operational from year 2017. This model will be used along with the present traditional ensemble model.

Dynamical Monsoon Model

  • The dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers (supercomputers) and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.
  • This modern forecasting model is being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.
  • The dynamical monsoon model is also called the Coupled Forecast System version 2. So far it has achieved only 60% accuracy in forecasting the monsoon.
  • This method is widely used in forecasting weather over a few days. But using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.

Ensemble model

  • Currently, IMD relies on an ensemble model for forecasting monsoon. This traditional model uses a statistical technique.
  • It uses an average of 6 meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure.
  • These meteorological values are traditionally derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.
  • However, this traditional approach in has failed to predict monsoon recent decades (for instance in 2002 and 2004) leading meteorologists to call for a new, modern forecasting system.

India Meteorological Department (IMD): It is an official national weather forecaster of India. It was established in 1875. It is a division of Union Ministry of Earth Sciences.



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