NSO First revised FY21 GDP estimates

The National Statistical Office recently released the first revised GDP estimates for the fiscal year 2021. According to the estimates, the GDP contracted by 6.6%. Earlier, the GDP had contracted by 7.3%. The contraction is mainly due to COVID pandemic and the lockdown imposed.

What do the estimates say?

  • The real GDP for 2020-21 is 135.58 lakh crores of rupees. The real GDP for 2019-20 is 145.16 crores. The values were calculated based on 2011-12 prices.
  • Nominal GDP for the 2020-21 is 198.01 lakh crores of rupees. In 2019-20, the nominal GDP was 200.75 lakh crores. This shows the nominal GDP has contracted by 1.4%.
  • The Nominal GVA at basic prices reduced by 4.8%. It had grown by 6.9% in 2019-20.
  • The real GVA at basic prices contracted to 4.8% in 2020-21 and had grown by 3.8% in 2019-20.

Inference

The contraction of GDP in 2021 creates a less approving base for the fiscal year 2022. This is to further contract the growth to 8.8% in 2022. The NSO expects this might change in 2023 and the GDP might jump ahead.

Growth rates of different sectors

The growth rates for 2020-21 are as follows:

  • Primary sector: Quarrying, Mining, Fishing, agriculture and forestry: (-2.8%). Previous year, this was 1.6%.
  • Secondary sector: Water Supply, electricity, manufacturing, gas: -7.8%. Previous year the growth was 1.9%.
  • Tertiary sector: Services: -6.8%. Previous year it was -8.4%.

 Income

  • The National Net Income for 2020-21 was 171.94 lakh crores. It was 177.94 crores in 2019-20. This says that the NNI has contracted by 2.9% in 2020-21. But in the previous year it had grown by 6%.
  • The per capital income at current prices for 2020-21 was Rs 1,26,855. The previous year it was Rs 1,32,115.

Real Price: It is the recent price of goods and service in the country. It is the market price. It is an adjusted price.

Nominal Price: It is an unadjusted price. It does not include inflation.

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