CEBR Forecast on Indian Economy

December 27, 2022

In its annual ‘World Economic League Table’, the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicted that India will become the third economic superpower by 2037.

About the World Economic League Table

The “World Economic League Table” is an annual publication of the CEBR. This report tracks the macroeconomic trends at the global and national levels. It presents economic forecasts for 191 countries until 2037. The latest edition of the report had warned of an imminent global recession.

What are the key findings of the World Economic League Table?

Over the next five years, India’s GDP growth is expected to average 6.4 percent each year. After this, the GDP is expected to grow at an average of 6.5 percent in the subsequent 9 years.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a devastating impact on the Indian economy in absolute terms, with India witnessing the third-highest number of deaths caused by the coronavirus.
This has caused a significant decline in the economic growth, with the output contracting by 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
The economic decline was followed by a sharp rebound in economic activity, which was fueled by an increase in domestic demand. This resulted in the GDP growing by 8.7 percent in 2021-22 and making India the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
The economic growth is estimated to be at 6.8 percent in 2022-23 despite the declining global demand and the tightening of the monetary policy to address inflation.
The output growth is expected to ease in 2023-24 as the increasing price levels will adversely affect domestic demand.
The government debt currently accounts for 83.4 percent of the GDP and its fiscal deficit accounts to 9.9 percent of the GDP. Debt-led economic destabilization can be prevented through fiscal consolidation.
India’s inflation has remained lower than most of the larger economies. Much of the country’s current inflation reflects high food prices. Food price accounts for a larger share of the consumer basket than in any other G20 country.
India is expected to become the third economic superpower by 2037 and a 10 trillion USD economy by 2035.
On the World Economic League Table, India will jump in the global ranking from the present fifth position in 2022 to third place by 2037.

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