By 2028, India to become most populous nation: UN report

As per the latest report titled World Population Prospects — The 2012 Revision, released by the United Nations, India will become the most populous country in the world by 2028, surpassing China, while Nigeria will have more people than the United States by 2050.
As per the Report projections:

  • World population which is 7.2 billion in 2013 will increase by almost one billion people within the next 12 years, touch 8.1 billion in 2025 and increase further to 9.6 billion in 2050.
  • By year 2100, the population will cross a whopping 10.9 billion.
  • Half of the population growth will be concentrated in a small number of countries.
  • B/w 2013-2100, eight countries are expected to have half of the world’s projected population increase. These will be Nigeria, India, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, Uganda, Ethiopia and the United States of America (listed according to the size of their contribution to global population growth).
  • India’s population, currently 1.2 billion, will touch 1.4 billion in 2025; 1.6 billion by 2050 before it starts declining by the year 2100, at which point India will have 1.5 billion people.
  • China’s population, 1.3 billion now, is projected to grow to 1.4 billion in 2025, after which it starts declining. By 2050, China’s population will have dropped to 1.3 billion and further to 1.03 billion by the turn of the century.
  • The additional 3.7 billion people from now to 2100 will mainly be distributed among the population aged 15-59 years (1.6 billion) and 60 or above (1.99 billion) as the number of children under age 15 in developing countries will not increase much.
  • The population of the more developed regions is projected to change minimally, passing from 1.25 billion now to 1.28 billion in 2100, and will actually decline but for the net increase due to migration from developing to developed countries, which is projected to average about 2.4 million people annually from 2013 to 2050 and a million from 2050 to 2100.
  • The populations of 35 countries, mostly less developing countries, could triple or more b/w now and 2100. Among these, the populations of several African countries like Malawi, Mali, Niger and Nigeria is likely to increase at least five fold.
  • In sharp contrast, the population of 43 nations would see their populations decline by 15%. These are Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania and Russian Federation.

Note: The results are based on the medium-variant projection, which assumes a decline in fertility for countries where large families are still prevalent as well as a slight increase in fertility in several countries with fewer than two children per woman on average.



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